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Author Archives: Chris Versace, Chief Investment Officer

About Chris Versace, Chief Investment Officer

I'm the Chief Investment Officer of Tematica Research and editor of Tematica Investing newsletter. All of that capitalizes on my near 20 years in the investment industry, nearly all of it breaking down industries and recommending stocks. In that time, I've been ranked an All Star Analyst by Zacks Investment Research and my efforts in analyzing industries, companies and equities have been recognized by both Institutional Investor and Thomson Reuters’ StarMine Monitor. In my travels, I've covered cyclicals, tech and more, which gives me a different vantage point, one that uses not only an ecosystem or food chain perspective, but one that also examines demographics, economics, psychographics and more when formulating my investment views. The question I most often get is "Are you related to…."
Getting this nursing stock off the bench and into the game

Getting this nursing stock off the bench and into the game

Continually throughout the past several weeks, we’ve shared our concern about the outlook for second half earnings for the S&P 500 group of companies relative to expectations — probably more than you’ve wanted to hear!

We continue to see those forecasts as overly robust, particularly with the stock market seemingly hitting new record highs every other day. Our view has been that there is more downside risk to be had as earnings expectations for the back half of 2016 get resized and reset.

Of course, as those expectations are reset, it can mean opportunity — opportunity for taking positions in companies we see as well-positioned from a thematic perspective, but at better prices than just a few weeks ago. We saw that last week with CalAmp Corp (CAMP), and we see it again this week with (AHS) AMN Healthcare Services.

 

In this week’s Tematica Investing:

  • We are taking advantage of a 23 percent drop in (AHS) AMN Healthcare Services shares to take them off the bench get them in the game — moving them from the Tematica Contender list to the Tematica Select List. Read More >>
  • With Back-to-School season more than in full swing, we dive into the intricacies of teen shopping habits and how they impact various positions across several of our themes, including Amazon (AMZN), Nike (NKE), Under Armour (UA) and what are probably the obvious themes and the not-so-obvious as well.  Read More >>

 

You can click below to download the full report.

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Video Arcades Trump Most Amusement Parks, Not Disney or Universal

Video Arcades Trump Most Amusement Parks, Not Disney or Universal

What do you get when you mash together aspects of our Connected Society  and Content is King investing themes? One answer is gaming.

Add in our “Death of the Mall as You Know It” view and we are not surprised by the return of video arcades. These 21st-century arcades are filled with high-end 3D games and simulators that are chomping more than just a few quarters. But that’s where our Cashless Consumption theme comes into play as a player uses a topped off game play card that also keeps track of  prize tickets. While we still love our roller coasters, we can understand how the quasi-addictive nature of gaming. Add in some friends and some adult beverages a la our Guilty Pleasure investing theme and <boom> there is your Dave & Buster’s Entertainment (PLAY) business model.

For those of you who miss the old stand-up games of Galaga and Defender, there were more “amusement arcades” in 2014 than in 1998, according to the Census Bureau.

The amusement park has been on a roller coaster ride for two decades, one that—as the chart shows—is fundamentally headed downward. In some years, more parks opened than shut, but the small upticks have been wiped out by the near-regularity of a free fall. There were 48 percent fewer amusement parks in the U.S. in 2014 than in 1998.

Among these, the smaller parks which depend on local or regional customers, and often just during summer, are having the hardest time. Even such a well-loved brand as Lego met industry skepticism as it seeks to build a chain of regional parks. On the other hand, huge amusement and theme parks that double as vacation destinations are still going strong.

Source: Americans Are in Love With Video Arcades Again – Bloomberg

Tematica Select Investment List

Tematica Select Investment List

Thematic Leaders List - NEW!

The stocks that crystallize and embody each of our 10 investment themes and offer the most compelling risk-to-reward tradeoff. Additionally, it currently includes Amazon, which is currently the most thematically well-positioned company riding the largest number of tailwinds from all the themes.  Click here for details

Tematica Select Investment List

While the Thematic Leaders list includes those stocks that offer the most compelling risk-to-reward tradeoff, the Select List includes those stocks that have a “Hold” rating. Unlike Wall Street research, however, our Hold means keeping the position in intact to capture any and all additional upside. Click here for details

Closed Tematica Select List Positions

It’s 11am, do you know where your car is? If not the stock we’re adding this week probably does

It’s 11am, do you know where your car is? If not the stock we’re adding this week probably does

Last week, as the latest issue of Tematica Investing was being delivered to you, I was literally being wheeled into the operating room for knee surgery. It was nothing too major, just the repair of a small meniscus tear I suffered on the basketball court. Fortunately for you (and for the performance of the Tematica Select List) the issue was completed early that morning — well in advance of that surgery — as I was pretty loopy afterwards!

A week later, things are feeling pretty good, but I am looking forward to getting the stitches out so I can get back in the pool and get some relief from the extra humid conditions here in DC this week!

 

In this week’s Tematica Investing:

 

  • We’re placing shares of CalAmp Corp. (CAMP) on the Tematica Select List as part of our Connected Society investing theme with a Buy rating and a $21 price target. We would be comfortable adding the shares up to $17.50, at which point we see upside of 20% vs. the current 35% upside to be had at the last night’s closing share price. Read More >>
  • Updates on Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Physicians Realty Trust (DOC), Nike (NKE) and Under Armour (UA). Read More >>
  • We also dig into where we are with our position in The Walt Disney Co. (DIS) after their earnings announcement last night. Hint, we need to have the same patience as a the line at Space Mountain. Read More >>
  • Check your accounts! Dividend payments have been made over the last few days from Starbucks (SBUX) an PetMeds Express (PETS). Read More >>

You can click below to download the full report.
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US Over the Top Video Users Approach Saturation Point

US Over the Top Video Users Approach Saturation Point

Streaming video continues to grow as does consumer spending on streaming video services. That trend has led Hulu to drop its free streaming service in favor of a subscription business model. Increasingly Hulu is looking more and more like Content is King company Netflix. How long until there is so much proprietary content that we’ll be thinking once again of Springsteen’s early 1990s song, “57 Channels and Nothin On”

According to eMarketer’s first-ever forecast of over-the-top (OTT) video viewership, OTT video services are nearing saturation. This year, 186.9 million people in the US will watch video via an app or website that provides streaming content over the internet and bypasses traditional distribution.

Nearly nine in 10 digital view viewers in the US already watch video content this way.

Overall, more US TV viewers are watching television shows and movies via subscription-based streaming services. A survey from Hub Research found that the respondents who chose streaming services were nearly double those who picked TV network sites or apps, and they were more than double those who picked free aggregators, such as Crackle or free content from Hulu.

Source: Hulu Drops Free Streaming Service as OTT Viewership Grows – eMarketer

Adding a splash of color to Rise & Fall of Middle Class

Adding a splash of color to Rise & Fall of Middle Class

Welcome to another weekly issue of the Weekly Tematica Investing. It’s been a wild week of market moves, earnings reports and economic data all at once.

In addition to my regular visits with the Charles Payne on his Making Money with Charles Payne show on Fox Business, I had an opportunity to sit down with the folks at Boom-Bust on RT (the new home of The Larry King Show) to dig deep into our thematic-driven approach and discuss why most investors are investing wrong. That of course is NOT the case with us!

You can click on the image below to watch the whole interview.

In this week’s Tematica Investing:

  • Closing the books on July, the Tematica Select List had a number of positions that handily outperformed the S&P 500, which rose 3.6% for the month. Read More >>
  • We are issuing a Buy rating paint and coatings company Sherwin Williams (SHW) with a $350 price target as we add a splash of color to our Rise & Fall of the Middle Class investing theme. This is a new position and we are holding off with a protective stop loss for now. Read More >>
  • Updates, Updates, Updates – Recapping earnings from Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), PetMeds Express (PETS) and Under Armour (UA). Read More >>
  • Housekeeping! – Here’s what we’re watching when Physicians Realty Trust (DOC) and Walt Disney (DIS) report quarterly earnings. Read More >>

You can click below to download the full report.
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☀ During this summer heatwave, what better move to make than this?

☀ During this summer heatwave, what better move to make than this?

Dog in front of fanHere at Tematica Research, just outside of Washington, DC, we are “enjoying” a good old fashion summer heatwave. The hottest summer in four years, yesterday marked the 6th straight day of highs at or above 90 degrees.

Now for those in the Midwest and Southwest, you’re probably thinking, that’s nothing!

The magic we have here in DC to throw into the mix of steamy temperatures is the fact that the city is built on what was once swamp land, and with that comes humidity — lots of it! So temps in the 90’s can easily climb up into the 105 degree heat index range, and with that comes that little bead of sweat that starts on the back of your neck, rolls down between your shoulder blades, further down to your lower back and then . . . well, you know where that story is going.

All of this reminds us of what put athletic apparel manufacturer Under Armour (UA) on the map — moisture-wicking synthetic fabric. The company that started in the basement of CEO Kevin Plank’s grandmother in 1996, has grown into a nearly $4 billion company that specializes in making sure all that sweat we humans produce is evaporated away rather than ending up where the sun don’t shine.

The heatwave across much of the country allows for this cheeky opening narrative to this story. The real reason we’re talking about Under Armour now is, given the pull-back in shares after the company’s 2nd quarter earnings announcement, we’re using the opportunity to make a move and add them to the Tematica Select List.

In this week’s Tematica Investing:

  • We are adding Under Armour (UA) shares to the Tematica Select List as part of our Rise & Fall investing theme, with a $55 price target. There is no recommended protective stop loss at this time.
  • Given the robust movie slate for 2H 2016, we are keeping Content is King Regal Entertainment (RGC) shares on the Tematica Select List, despite a modest $0.01 per share earnings miss for the June quarter.
  • We have earnings from Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) later this week, and we preview what’s expected and what we’ll be looking for in those reports.
  • Starbucks is added to Goldman’s Conviction List, more confirmation for our position in the coffee giant.
  • AT&T (T) loses the Yahoo! (YHOO) bid to Verizon (VZ), and we are rather happy with that.

You can click below to download the full report.

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It’s looking increasingly like the calm before the earnings storm

It’s looking increasingly like the calm before the earnings storm

MgdKy65If we learned anything from the disappointing Netflix (NFLX) earnings announcement on Monday evening, it’s that the current market is going to flip-flop day by day, earnings report by earnings report for the near-term. Of course, we’ll have a much clearer picture of the overall health of June quarter earnings by the time the closing bell rings this Friday, when 35 percent of the S&P 500 will have reported earning. Those same reports are going to give us a preview of the likelihood of the 13 percent earnings increase required to meet expectations for the second half of the year, or as we expect, many firms will be adjusting earnings downward.

Let’s just say we feel like we’re nearing the crest of the rollercoaster ride.

 

In this week’s Tematica Investing:

  • Earnings start to take a toll on the market and with much more to be had we are holding steady with the Tematica Select List
  • Introducing our S&P 500 beating Thematic Index, which is comprised of 170 companies and reflects all 17 of our proprietary investment themes.
  • Tematica Select List earnings on tap this week – AT&T (T) and Starbucks (SBUX)
  • Updates, Updates, Updates


Click the link below to download the full report.

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Caution ahead even as the S&P 500 hits record highs

Caution ahead even as the S&P 500 hits record highs

Screen Shot 2016-07-13 at 9.33.51 AMEven as the market continues its melt-up, we still maintain our cautionary approach. We’ve been asked if we feel a little bit like Chicken Little screaming that the sky is falling. The answer to that is an emphatic no.

As we always maintain, we let the data do the talking — not the headlines — and when we dig into the specifics in the earnings we’ve received thus far, what we see is not good news. While we have to tip our hats to these companies for doing what they can to generate the EPS headlines, it’s not the underlying health of their business that’s driving these results.

In this week’s Tematica Investing:

  • As we march hip deep into 2Q 2016 earnings season, the S&P 500 has climbed to a new all-time high despite a smorgasbord of uncertainties that lay ahead.
  • The earnings reports we have received for the June quarter are a mixed bag, favoring EPS misses and recast outlooks. This reinforces our view that earnings expectations for the second half of 2016 are overly robust and there is a high probability they will be reset over the coming weeks.
  • Even those few reports we’ve received and were ahead of expectations do not paint a vibrant picture of what’s to come in the coming months. As an example, we break down Alcoa’s (AA) 2Q 2016 results.
  • Given a risk to reward outlook that at least for the near-term favors more risk than reward, we will sit on the sidelines with new additions to the Tematica Select List as we instead roll up our sleeves to identify new contenders and digest the coming earnings deluge.

Click the link below to download the full report.

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Continued market uncertainty after Brexit has us tightening up our positions

Continued market uncertainty after Brexit has us tightening up our positions

While we did come in from the beach long-enough last week to share our views on the Brexit vote, it’s good to be back in the saddle full-force with this week’s Tematica Investing.  So let’s get right down to it . . .

In this week’s Tematica Investing:

  • Renewed Brexit fallout uncertainty and Italian banking concerns have tipped the market mood back to cautiousness. Recent earnings have been disappointing and likely set the stage for what is to be a challenging June quarter earnings season. We remain very comfortable with the Tematica Select List holdings given the mix of defensive business models and thematic tailwinds.
  • We are adding iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) shares to the Tematica Contender List and look to revisit the shares closer to $134-$135.
  • We are boosting our price target for AT&T shares to $45 from $42 and raising our protective stop loss to $39 from $36. We will continue to keep T shares on the Tematica Select List, but we would not recommend adding to your T shares at current levels.
  • We are also raising our price target and protective stop loss for our Physicians Realty Trust (DOC) shares. Our new price target is $25, up from $18, and our new stop loss is set at $18, up from $16. Much like T shares, we will continue to keep DOC shares on the Tematica Select List, but advise against committing fresh capital at current levels.
  • Nike (NKE) reported quarterly earnings last week, which were essentially in line. As expected the liquidation sales at Sports Authority and Sports Chalet will be a short-term disruption, and we continue to like the shares given our longer-term perspective. We continue to have a Buy on NKE shares and our price target remains $66.

Click the link below to download the full report.

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