Author Archives: Lenore Hawkins, Chief Macro Strategist

About Lenore Hawkins, Chief Macro Strategist

Lenore Hawkins serves as the Chief Macro Strategist for Tematica Research. With over 20 years of experience in finance, strategic planning, risk management, asset valuation and operations optimization, her focus is primarily on macroeconomic influences and identification of those long-term themes that create investing headwinds or tailwinds.
Back in Italia – time for Barolo and farinata!

Back in Italia – time for Barolo and farinata!

Landed back in Milan to find the city covered in a beautiful soft layer of snow, then somehow stayed awake for the 2 hour drive back to Genova, (thank God for SUVs and snow tires).  A long hot shower and a glass of wine later, I started to feel human again.  What is it about airplanes that makes you feel so dirty and tired?  Thank God for noise canceling headsets and movies loaded onto my iPad.  Please British Airways…you have seriously got to rethink your movie selection.  Watched the movie Lucy and found myself continually looking around so see if other people were watching it in utter disbelief of how shockingly moronic the entire production was.  As an Irish lass it was sheer torture to not be able to rant to anyone about the lunacy… was forced to console myself with a crumbly cookie and milk.  Just wasn’t the same.  Seriously, Scarlett Johansson (who I normally really enjoy) and Morgan Freeman (with a voice like hot buttered rum), what where you thinking?  It was just painful.

 

Over the weekend I just had to visit one of my favorite restaurants in town down in Porto Antico, Tre Merli, where we had a bottle of 1990 Cannubi Barolo decanted a few hours before our arrival for maximal enjoyment while doing a bigenova-porto-antico-estate-2013t of grocery shopping at Eataly, Genova’s answer to Whole Foods.  Oh my was that vino buono!  Incredibly soft, well balanced with just enough fruit to keep it interesting – my apologies – it is hard to describe wine sometimes without feeling like some ridiculous character out of Sideways!  The color was a gorgeous raspberry-tinted rust that looked so lovely lit by candlelight.  Had an unreal amount of sediment, but Tre Merli uses this beautiful silver strainer that help make it all so much more of a decadent ceremony.  I think I have a serious Nebbiolo addiction.  “Hi, my name is Elle, and I can’t fathom life without this particular grape.”  I do realize how mental that sounds – ehhh – add it to the list.  Then onto what can only be described as freakin’ heaven on earth, farinata, which originated in Genova.  It has surpassed macaroni and cheese as my go-to comfort food.

If you ever get to Genova, make sure you indulge deeply in the local specialities of farinata, focaccia, pesto and the local white fish prepared in the Ligurian style with olives and pine nuts – bits of heaven.  I used to not be a big fan of fish but the Mediterranean has taught me the joys of warmer water fish, so delicate and even a bit sweet!  Buon Appetito!

 

Banks & the Fed – Bail 'em Out then Beat 'em Up

While shoppers were watching their pennies this holiday season, I was grinching over the relationship between the Fed and the big banks as reminiscent of the abusive relationship between Ike and Tina Turner – bail them out then beat them up with an onslaught of massive fines.  According to a global banking study by the Boston Consulting Group, legal claims against the world’s leading banks have reached $178 billion since the financial crisis, with heavy fines now seen as a cost of doing business, a cost ultimately born by shareholders with no banking employees or executives facing charges for wrong-doing.

All these fines do little to deter wrong-doing in the future while taking money out of the hands of those saving for retirement and give it to the government to spend with zero accountability.


 

Liberty Weeps over Ferguson and New York

Liberty Weeps over Ferguson and New York

LibertyWeeps

Last night’s decision over Eric Garner in New York after what happened in Ferguson has left the United States in more turmoil than the nation has experienced in years, maybe even decades. I tossed and turned much of the night, unable to sleep, angry and sad.  Liberty, what I hold most dear, weeps.

 

Much will be said about this over the coming years, but I believe it comes down to this. In order for people to respect the law, both the laws and those who uphold them must be respectable.

 

The law in the US is no longer worthy of respect, having criminalized human behavior to an insane degree and those who are to uphold the law have turned into a militarized force that is entirely too focused on intimidation and domination rather than “to protect and serve;” obviously this is not true for every person involved in enforcement. As I’ve mentioned in an earlier post (here), no other country incarcerates a higher percentage of its population than the United States, a dubious gold medal we’ve held since 2002. Over 7 people are incarcerated out of every 1,000. The US has about 5% of the world’s population but 25% of the entire world’s prison population!

 

While I understand the pain and frustration, the violent protests and broad accusations of racism detract from the very real issues and often harm the credibility of those accusations raises questions over their validity. We do have very real problems in the US, and it seems to me they have reached a point at which they can no longer be ignored, but history has shown that these are best resolved by principled dialogue. The US was founded on deep respect for individual rights and a passionate desire to limit the power of the government. Respect for an enforcement of individual rights by definition prohibits any racism in the law. Individuals are still free to be bigoted jerks, but no law can fix that. Only a just society can provide fertile ground for enlightenment of the ass.

 

As a nation we’ve stumbled along and not gotten things right many times, but the trajectory was at least in the right direction. We used to have credibility in our role as the global defender of liberty! We used to be a nation that fought for what was right and we weren’t so easily scared, so willing to give up responsibility for the empty promise of security. Fear has led to an increasingly militarized police force and a mind boggling expansion of what is deemed “criminal,” which has placed this insane, perverse, over-arching enforcement of “law” above basic human respect. It needs to stop, but if any nation on earth is capable of reversing this horrible course, it is America.  She can once again become the land of the free and the home of the brave.

Liberty Cannot Be Delivered at the Point of a Gun

Liberty Cannot Be Delivered at the Point of a Gun

Iraq has again descended into anarchic terror as the government  and tenuous order left in place by the US crumbles without the power of the US military behind it.  Now the US finds itself once again forced to engage in a situation that will cost dearly both in terms of actual dollars and in lives lost or at least severely damaged.  We made a mess of it and understandably the world looks to us to clean up after ourselves, regardless of the futility of the exercise.

The American Solider is to me one of the most awe inspiring images.  He/She is the defender of those who cannot defend themselves, the strong hand that reaches out and provides food, shelter, and breathtaking levels of aid during times of crisis.  He/She is the fearless defender of freedom.  Whenever I see servicemen and women I thank them for their sacrifice, for taking on risks and enduring hardships that I cannot comprehend, affording me the luxury of enjoying a life in which I only have to sweat the small stuff.  The respect they deserve demands that our military not be used so readily and with so little thought as the the endgame.

Time and time again we send our precious men and women into a nation that is suffering under a horrid despot.  We march on in fancying ourselves to be the great liberators, freeing those terrorized under barbaric rule.   It is a noble image and one that has seduced repeatedly.

The reality is something entirely different.  Democracy cannot be spread at the point of a gun.  A nation cannot be handed democracy by an occupying military force.  Liberty cannot be delivered at the point of a gun.  The love of freedom, the deep belief in the sanctity of individual rights cannot be forced upon a people, no matter how noble the intent.  It is something that must be generated from within.  It is something that must be fought for by those suffering under despotic rule and if history is any guide, it must be earned by those who seek it in bloodshed and tears.

The US seems to repeatedly stumble into foreign military messes the way Justin Bieber tweets, frequently and without much thought.

The US accounts for roughly half of the world’s military spending, yet we still don’t feel safe.  In 2013 the US accounted for about 73% of NATO’s defense spending, despite the other 27 members having collectively a larger economy than the US.

MilitarySpending

It was not the use of American military force that instilled in Soviet era Russians the desire to smoke Marlboros or wear Levis, icons of American cowboy-style independence.  The world and the United States would be better served if, rather than engaging in military conflicts that only ended up trading one set of terrorizing leaders for another, we focus on being an example of what is possible when individual rights, innovation and success are revered.  We could do much more good in the world by serving as a safe haven for those who seek to escape terror abroad, welcoming with open arms and with high expectations that those who come here, push themselves to achieve to the best of their abilities, rather than treating them and much of our existing population, like incompetent children who require a paternalistic government to manage their lives.

Walgreens and the morality of taxes

Walgreens and the morality of taxes

 

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There’s been quite a bit of chatter on Facebook and in the investment community concerning Walgreens’ (WAG) announcement that it does not intend to take advantage of the tax breaks its potential acquisition of Alliance Boots in the UK would allow under the tax code, a strategy which could save it and thus its shareholders hundreds of millions of dollars each year. The announcement has been met with much moral posturing from all sides and has subsequently sent shares tumbling, loosing as much as $5 billion in market capitalization.

Many on Facebook have professed support for this position. Walgreens has two options:

1)   Take advantage of the legal tax breaks afforded to it through this potential acquisition, retaining more income for its shareholder, which are primarily Americans. This would result in more money in the private sector.

2)   Take money away from their shareholders and give it to the federal government in the form of taxes.   This would result in more money in the public sector.

Which option is better, 1 or 2? Depends on what you are looking to achieve. If what you are looking to achieve is more growth in the economy, then you simply choose the option that generates greater growth. So far, the evidence is fairly clear that the private sector generates more growth per dollar spent than the public sector, you can read about this here, here, here and here, (there are countless more, but I think you get the point.)

This is fairly intuitive if you think about it.

In the private sector, a company has a finite amount of money to invest in order to generate growth. By definition, if a company wants to remain in business it has to generate more money that it uses to operate. If it fails to do so, it will go out of business, thus will no longer be able to siphon money away from those ventures that do generate more than they consume.

In the public sector there is no such feedback loop. Programs within the government grow by garnering themselves more and more attention and by convincing those who hold the purse strings that they need more funds. There is no weighing of value generated vs value consumed. In fact there is more of a negative feedback loop by which a program that is shown to be failing miserably is more likely to get significantly more funds if it projects the impression of impending doom than one that is showing efficacy with the funds it already has been allocated.

Before cheering on Walgreens for taking money out of the pockets of its shareholders, think about whether you or Congress make better decisions with the money in your pocket. Given that according to a recent NBC/WSJ poll, Congressional approval rating is down to a staggering 14%, I’m guessing most believe that the money is best served in your pocket.

That being said, the main problem here is the ludicrously complicated tax code and excessively high tax rates which incentivize the private sector to seek out ways to minimize taxes. The Laffer Curve illustrates how lower tax rates, (and a simple tax code) would ultimately result in higher tax receipts and less money wasted in utterly non-productive pursuit of means to minimize taxes. Money spent on lawyers and accountants could instead be spent in ways that would productively grow the economy.

Foreign Account Compliance Tax Act

Foreign Account Compliance Tax Act

I spoke at FreedomFest in Las Vegas… in July… yes, know my pain.  On my way out from my talk my dear friend Richard Rahn, (the infamous one-eyed economist) grabbed me and introduced me to the lovely Emerald Robinson so that we could talk about the recently enacted Foreign Account Compliance Tax Act aka FATCA and its impact on expats as I split my time between the U.S. and Europe.

President Obama and the VA Scandal

I recently was in studio in New York, speaking with Neil Cavuto on the latest scandal facing President Obama’s Administration over the treatment of Veterans by the VA , involving alleged deception about the waiting time for treatment at veterans hospitals.   While it would be easy to say that this is the fault of an incompetent administration,  the reality is this is simply another example of why the size and scope of government ought to be limited.  Today the federal government is simply to big to succeed!

Regulating Freedom of Speech & IRS scandals

Regulating Freedom of Speech & IRS scandals

Earlier this week I appeared on the Rick Amato Show with my writing partner, Chris Versace.   We discussed the FCC’s recent statements  concerning regulating conservative media, somehow justifying regulating freedom of speech.  We also discussed the IRS Scandal concerning Lois Lerner’s refusal to testify and claims that her emails have been lost.

In the second segment we discuss how the horror of the sequester resulted in the loss of all of one job!   Government math strikes once again, reporting a decrease in the rate of increase as a cut.  Using that logic, if over the past year I’ve been gaining 2 pounds a month and this month I only gained one pound… well then I’ve lost weight!

 

Rick Amato Show: 5/8/2014 from Mychal Wilson, Esq. on Vimeo.

Italy and California: A Sisyphean Nightmare?

Italy and California: A Sisyphean Nightmare?

I think most people are clear that in a robust, healthy economy entrepreneurs are able to quickly turn their ideas into reality, in the process creating jobs and occasionally having an enormous impact on the way we live, as in the case of Apple, Amazon, and for the ladies out there, Spanx.  My two homes, Italy and California both appear to be hell bent on becoming Sisyphean nightmares for not only the budding entrepreneur, but even for well-established, international corporations.

Yesterday the Wall Street Journal ran a piece entitled, “Can Italy Find it’s Way Back?”  The article opens with an example of just how difficult it is to get a business going in the country.  We are told of an entrepreneur who bought a tract of land when he was 45 with the intention of building a supermarket on it.  At 88 years old, he’s finally received the necessary permits!  Seriously!?  Colleagues of mine in Italy have shared similar insane tales of government bureaucracy, their frustration mounting and gesticulations increasingly animated as the bottles of vino empty.  It is Italy after all and intense conversation requires a good bottle of champagne or a rich bottle of red.

California is moving rapidly in the same direction, making it more and more difficult for entrepreneurs to translate a passion into reality, while for existing companies the regulator and tax burden is pushing them to locate elsewhere.  The headlines for years have told of one company after another deciding to leave the state.  Carl’s Junior announced that it would not open one more restaurant in the state because it takes too long and is too expensive to get through all the red tape.  Just this week Toyota announced it is moving a facility it has had in Torrance, California for over 30 years to Texas.

This is what I like to call, for obvious reasons, Elle’s Law of Unintended Consequences whereby bureaucrats’ attempts to protect invariably end up harming the very thing their legislation intended to protect.

Entrepreneurs, being adventurous types by definition, rationally choose to go where there are fewer barriers to success.  Large corporations may find that over time, the benefits of being in a specific locale are falling further and further below the associated costs.  When bureaucrats enact legislation that creates barriers, any reasonable businessperson will have to compare the associated costs with the potential benefits of operating under such conditions.

In Italy, labor laws have become so onerous that the economy is bizarrely bifurcated into two distinct types of businesses:  very small, family-run, mom-and-pop shops and large multi-national corporations that were already large by the time they entered the Italian market.  Why is this?  The labor laws that were enacted in Italy with the intention of protecting workers have made it inconceivably risky to hire anyone, because if it doesn’t work out, firing them is almost prohibitively costly.  If you have a small shop, with just you and your partner, it is insanely risky bring on additional help, so you simply don’t grow.  The economy is deprived of the potential success you could have had if the risks of expanding weren’t so great!  Think of how many jobs wouldn’t exist today if Google had never made it out of the basement.  Large multinationals that come into the country face a slightly easier mountain as for them, the likelihood of a high portion of hires not working out is fairly low.  Due to their size, they can survive having some level of deadweight, unlike the small firms.

Unfortunately, the damage doesn’t stop here.  The culture of protecting labor in this manner comes from a history of communism and socialism that emerged as a violent reaction to the hell experienced under fascism.  This mentality applies subtle negative attributes to those who attempt to be special, to do something unique and worthy of attention.  Thus there is a disincentive for putting in the extra effort, for taking the risks associated with overachieving and given this cultural climate, overachievers aren’t compensated much more than their colleagues who do the bare minimum.  Couple this with the reality that it is really difficult to fire someone, so imagine the incentives!  Shockingly enough, human beings, like all animals, respond strongly to incentives.  If I won’t get compensated much more for working my tail off, why would I put in the effort and take the risks to be outstanding?  If I can’t be fired, the floor for the level of performance I consider reasonable is going to be a lot lower than if I know there’s a line of people just waiting to take my place!  Now while we’ve all had days when this situation would sound awful comfortable, think about what it means for the performance level of the society as a whole.  How often have you heard envious tales of Italian efficiency and professionalism?

Is it any wonder that Italy’s economy is essentially stagnant?  How can it possibly grow when entrepreneurs are so heavily hamstrung and when workers have very little incentive to do more than the bare minimum where their is neither a carrot, nor a stick.

Sadly, every time I leave Italy and return to California I am struck more by the similarities than the differences.  The U.S. would be wise to look across the pond and understand what it is that is keeping so many countries in the eurozone economically stagnant and fight like hell to move in the opposite direction.

Inequality of Racism

Inequality of Racism

Yesterday the NBA barred Clippers owner Donald Sterling for life for the racist remarks he made in a recorded private conversation. Naturally Facebook immediately became a hotbed for inflammatory debate, much of it not worth one’s time to read as all too often in today’s society thoughtful discussion and reasoned, rational debate is replaced by verbal lashings and outlandish name-calling. That being said, underneath the often ALL CAPITALIZED rants, there are some valid frustrations concerning the inequality of racism.

A response to Donald Sterling’s remarks Monday in Charlotte, N.C., where the Miami Heat completed a sweep. Credit Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Many argue that Sterling ought to not be castigated because there is a long list of individuals with black skin who have made outrageous, racist, bigoted, or sexist comments and have suffered little ill will from society at large, occasionally even benefiting from their disgusting rants. The fact that some people get away with wrong-doing does not mean it is no longer wrong. The NBA’s actions are not the case of the government taking away private property, using the threat of force. The NBA is a brand and Sterling simply owns a franchise. When he bought the franchise, he agreed to honor the terms of the league constitution.

A McDonald’s owner cannot damage the McDonald’s brand without consequences. The same holds true for NBA team owners. Advertisers are pulling their sponsorships and do not want their ads run during a Clippers game. That harms other NBA franchise owner’s property rights. Many individuals will no longer attend or watch Clippers games on TV. That harms the NBA brand, other owners and the players. The NBA has the right, according to their own constitution, to defend their brand.

It is true that there are many loud-mouthed pundits who abuse the very concept of racism to forward their personal agenda, which is typically perfectly aligned with the interests of their own pocketbooks. There are plenty of people of all colors who are racist, bigoted, and vile in a variety of ways. Their actions do not make Sterling’s any less vile. The woman who recorded this private conversation is awful for doing so, but again, doesn’t make what he said, or the vile things he’s done for decades acceptable.

Yes, outrage in this country can be very biased, often one sided, and that angers the hell out of me, but again, doesn’t make this acceptable. This isn’t a tit-for-tat game. It has taken the NBA entirely too long to address the vile ethics of one of their owners, but now that they are finally doing so, let’s support that decision and make it known loud and clear that such a swift response will be expected any time racism rears its ugly head, regardless of the color of the skin of the perpetrator.