Climbing gas prices are a growing spending headwind for consumers
Investors have been grappling with a far greater number of uncertainties in 2018 compared to last year, with more than a few spiraling out of Washington, DC. These uncertainties have made for a very different stock market over the last four months compared to the prior 15 months. And it looks like that recent trend will continue, hitting consumer wallets and in all likelihood, consumer spending as gas prices that are already at the highest level in four years are poised to creep higher.
As that disposable income is sapped with more wallet pain at the gas pump, the ensuing spending pain is fodder for our Cash-Strapped Consumer investing theme. And yes, we see this as another reason to think the Atlanta Fed’s current GDP Now forecast of 4.1% for 2Q 2018 is… well, let’s just say it’s more than a tad optimistic.
The national average price is up to $2.81 a gallon according to AAA, an increase of 3 cents in the last week, and 15 cents in the last month. This is the highest prices have been since 2014.
The Oil Price Information Service, which tracks prices for AAA, expects the national average to rise to about $3 a gallon sometime this month.
About 16% of gas stations nationwide are already charging more than $3 for a gallon of regular. Less than 4% were charging $3 or more on this date a year ago.
