Category Archives: Daily Markets Note

Yesterday US investors were surprised to see the market suddenly drop around midday, the Dow falling almost 400 points at one point, with no one clear, obvious catalyst. The suspected culprit was a report of new coronavirus cases at a Beijing hospital combined with other reports of the outbreak accelerating outside of China.

The coronavirus is once again front and center for investors today with stocks in Asia closing mostly in the red except for the major Chinese indices on word that the return to work is accelerating in the major foreign trade provides. The Shenzhen Composite gained 1.1% and the Shanghai Composite 0.3%. South Korea, on the other hand, saw its Kospi drop 1.5% after reporting the first confirmed death in the country from COVID-19 on top of having the highest number of people infected with the virus outside of mainland China.

The major European indices were all in the red…

Read more here

Disclosures

• Coca-Cola (KO) is a constituent in Tematica Research’s Thematic Dividend All-Stars Index.
• Lululemon (LULU) and Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) are constituents in Tematica Research’s Cleaner Living Index.

The main equity indices closed mostly in the green in Asia today after China cut its 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) by ten basis points and its 5-year by five basis points. This move comes after the People’s Bank of China had earlier cut the rate on $28.65 billion worth of 1-year medium-term lending facility loans to financial institutions from 3.25% to 3.15% on Monday. The rate cut was widely anticipated and is another layer in China’s efforts to limit the economic impact of the coronavirus.

As of yesterday, China’s National Health Commission had reported an additional 114 deaths from COVID-19, and 394 confirmed new cases for a total of 2,118 deaths and 74,576 cases. The number of new cases dropped dramatically, giving investors hope that we may have seen the worst of it, a hope that was furthered by the announcement from Foxconn today that it is cautiously restarting production at its primary plants in China. The Hubei province has asked that work not resume before March 11 – suspension for many firms was previously due to end February 21. South Korea reported 22 new confirmed cases with a potential first death from the virus that remains under investigation.

Shares in Europe were modestly in the red as of midday trading with US futures pointing to a slightly lower open after the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 closed at new highs yesterday.

Read more here

Disclosures

• First Solar (FSLR), Sprout’s Farmers Market (SFM) are constituents in Tematica Research’s Cleaner Living Index.
• Zscaler (ZS) is a constituent in the Foxberry Tematica Research Cybersecurity & Data Privacy Index.

The major equity indices in Asia bounced back from their recent slides shrugging off a growing list of companies warning over the impact of the coronavirus as all but the Shanghai composite closed in the green today. By midday, the main European equity indices were also in the green and US equity futures point to a slight rise at the open after yesterday’s opening dip that reversed into a new record high for the Nasdaq Composite while the S&P 500, Dow and Russell 2000 closed down 0.3%, 0.6% and 0.2% respectively.

US Treasury yields are falling across the board…

Read more here

Disclosures

• Nike (NKE), Target (TGT), Walmart (WMT) are constituents in Tematica Research’s Thematic Dividend All-Stars Index. 
• Herbalife Nutrition (HLF), Tivity Health (TVTY) are constituents in Tematica Research’s Cleaner Living Index. 

Last Friday we noted traders would likely take a cautious stance heading into the long weekend that saw US equity markets closed yesterday in observation of Presidents’ Day and we were correct in our thinking as stocks gave back most of their gains to finish the day little changed. That concern proved to be on the nose as Apple (AAPL) pre-announced that it would not meet its revenue expectations for the current quarter that it laid out on Jan. 28, which was wider than usual as the company looked to account for the impact of the coronavirus – see more in Stocks to Watch. 

As we’ve all come to realize in recent weeks, the scope of the virus’s impact has been far greater than many initially expected and even as China looks to get back to work, that resumption has been slower than expected. This morning we are seeing that play out in the latest ZEW Indicators for both the Eurozone and Germany, and as we point out in today’s Data Download China is a larger trading partner for the US than Germany, and likely means we will be hearing more reports like the one from Apple in the coming days. 

Read more here

Disclosures

• Qualcomm (QCOM) and Walmart (WMT)  are constituents in Tematica Research’s Thematic Dividend All-Stars Index. 

Love may be the theme for today’s Valentine’s day, but the markets are mostly feeling, “I think I’ll just throw on my comfy sweats, grab a pint of ice cream and go for a Netflix marathon.” Or maybe that’s just us.

Yesterday investors continued to reassess risk concerning COVID-19, leaving the major US indices little changed. Today Asia closed mostly in the green, albeit just slightly, except for Japan’s Nikkei, which closed down just over 0.5%. Markets in Europe were mixed by mid-day trading, but little changed either way. US equity futures point to a slight increase at the open – another day with little direction.

Perhaps cupid and his arrows have investors distracted ahead of the long weekend in the US? Given Presidents’ Day in the US is Monday, markets will be closed so we wouldn’t be surprised to see traders taking a cautious stance into the weekend to avoid any COVID-19 surprises before markets re-open on Tuesday.

The tariff reductions agreed to as part of the phase one U.S-China trade deal…

Read more here

Disclosures

• Hershey (HSY) and Microsoft (MSFT) are constituents in Tematica Research’s Thematic Dividend All-Stars Index.
• Tesla (TSLA) is a constituent in Tematica Research’s Cleaner Living Index.
• Cisco Systems (CSCO) and FireEye (FEYE) are constituents in the Foxberry Tematica Research Cybersecurity & Data Privacy Index.

Stocks continued to shrug off concerns over the coronavirus and kicked into high-gear risk-on mode. The Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite both hit new all-time highs. The VIX dropped 10% yesterday alone and the yield on the US 10-year rose 7 basis points. Absent from the party were WTI crude, which fell another 1% to hit a new 52-week low, and Utilities, the only sector to finish the day lower.

That risk-on mode continued today in Asian equities, which moved higher including those in China despite the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in China exceeding 24,000 and the death count approaching 500. While the World Health Organization said this morning that there is still no known treatment at this time, there were reports that scientists are making breakthroughs with a vaccine for the coronavirus. Speculation continues to point to further stimulus moves by the People’s Bank of China as it looks to offset the impact of the coronavirus, including lowering its loan prime rate on Feb. 20, and cut banks’ reserve requirement ratios in the coming weeks.

We think we can safely place “don’t fight the PBoC” alongside the popular investor mantra that is “don’t fight the Fed.”

Read more here

Disclosures

• Qualcomm (QCOM) is a constituent in Tematica Research’s Thematic Dividend All-Stars Index. 
• Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Tesla (TSLA) are constituents in Tematica Research’s Cleaner Living Index. 
• FireEye (FEYE) is a constituent in the Foxberry Tematica Research Cybersecurity & Data Privacy Index.

Yesterday the major indices reversed a bit of the decline since fears over the coronavirus began. The Nasdaq 100 lead the major US indices, gaining 1.5%, the Nasdaq Composite 1.3%, the S&P 500 0.7% and the Dow 30 0.5% while the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) lost 4.6%. The oil market continues to suffer with estimates that China’s oil consumption could decline by as much as 20%. 

Despite a second coronavirus death being reported outside of China and the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in China exceeding 20,000 with the death count surpassing 400, the speed of the virus’s international increase appears to have slowed compared to last week, This potential good news coupled with another round of stimulus from the People’s Bank of China — another $71.2 billion of liquidity via reverse repo agreements on top of the $143 billion injection on Monday — led Asian markets to end the day higher, including a rebound in the Shanghai Index today.  European equities have followed suit and are up across the board while US equity futures point to a vibrant market open. 

If you were expecting to read about the results of the Iowa Caucuses, we are sorry to inform you that an “election debacle” unfolded yesterday as the Democratic Party found “inconsistencies in the reporting.” According to Mandy McClure, the state party’s communications director, “The underlying data and paper trail is sound and will simply take time to further report the results.” Results could be released as soon as late today. 

While this could make for some interesting barbs as we get ready for tonight’s annual State of the Union Address…

Read more herehttps://www.nasdaq.com/articles/daily-markets%3A-china-stimulates-markets-the-iowa-debacle-and-trumps-state-of-the-union

Disclosures

• Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Tesla (TSLA) are constituents in Tematica Research’s Cleaner Living Index. 

First off, after a nail biter of a game heading into half time, the Kansas City Chiefs dominated the fourth quarter to win Super Bowl LIV.  Before the game, the AFC and the NFC were tied for Super Bowl victories at 27 each. The last time both conferences had the same number of wins was back in 1990 at 12 a pop. In the prior five years when the 49ers won the Super Bowl, the S&P 500 was up for the remainder of the year every time by an average of 20.2%. The one time the Chief won the Super Bowl was in 1970 which saw the S&P 500 fall 0.3%. The one other time they made it but lost to the Packers, the S&P 500 gained 14.1% in the remainder of the year.

Before the big game, last week we closed the books on January and to say it ended on a weak note would be a bit of an understatement. Coronavirus contagion fears dominated not just the stock market, but the global economy. Last Friday stocks fell sharply, with the major US indices falling between 1.5% and 2.1%. The hit from coronavirus fears has been so profound the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NYSE Composite and the Russell 2000 were all in negative territory YTD as of Friday’s close. The Nasdaq 100 and the Nasdaq Composite remained up 3% and 2% YTD, respectively, but even that is dwarfed by the near 37% jump in the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index.

And for context on the sharp shift in the markets last week, consider this: a week ago, every major global equity index was at least one standard deviation above its 50-day moving average. After Friday’s close most were in oversold territory except Australia and New Zealand, which were aided by currency declines.

As the Chiefs and their fans celebrate their victory…

Read more here

Disclosures

• Checkpoint Systems (CHKP) is a constituent in the Foxberry Tematica Research Cybersecurity & Data Privacy Index. 

As we get ready to close the books on January, gains in equities earlier in the month have come under pressure as the coronavirus continues to expand. Earlier today China’s National Health Commission confirmed there have been 9,692 confirmed cases of the coronavirus, with 213 deaths, but reports suggest the virus has reached at least 18 counties. The U.K. confirmed its first two cases of coronavirus on Friday, while the U.S. and Japan advised citizens avoid traveling to China. We’d remind readers that yesterday the World Health Organization (WHO) labeled the virus a “global health emergency” and the US State Department elevated its China travel advisory to Level 4 –  “Do Not Travel.”

Investors and economists are now attempting to assess the impact of this moving target on the global economy and corporate earnings.

Read more here

Disclosures

• Colgate Palmolive (CL), IBM (IBM), and Visa (V) are constituents in Tematica Research’s Thematic Dividend All-Stars Index. 
• Tesla (TSLA) is a constituent in Tematica Research’s Cleaner Living Index. 

In yesterday’s Daily Markets note, your authors shared that as equity markets looked to shrug off the mounting coronavirus news, our suspicion that we had yet to see the real fallout on economic growth and earnings expectations. It would seem we were correct in that thinking. Overnight economists updated their forecasts in an attempt to size up that potential economic impact, and it is weighing on global equities. With more than 7,700 people being infected by the virus and the World Health Organization saying the spread of the virus outside of China is a “grave concern,” one Chinese economist estimated the virus could hit China’s GDP by 1-5% while economists from Nomura shared the “outbreak could cause China’s real GDP growth to shrink to below 4% from the 6% pace.”  We suspect these are only the first few revisions to be had in the coming days.

Below in today’s note, we call out various companies who have announced changes to their operations as a result of the virus below, but we’d like to point out that the sheer magnitude of work that is being put on hold cannot help but have an impact on global supply lines as well. Add this to the impact of the ongoing trade war and you have some material headwinds to global growth.

Read more here

Disclosures

• Hershey Foods (HSY), Microsoft (MSFT), Northrop Grumman (NOC), Raytheon (RTN), UPS (UPS), and Verizon (VZ) are constituents in Tematica Research’s Thematic Dividend All-Stars Index. 
• Tesla (TSLA) is a constituent in Tematica Research’s Cleaner Living Index. 
• Proofpoint (PFPT) is a constituent in the Foxberry Tematica Research Cybersecurity & Data Privacy Index.