Category Archives: Digital Lifestyle

Adding a splash of color to Rise & Fall of Middle Class

Adding a splash of color to Rise & Fall of Middle Class

Welcome to another weekly issue of the Weekly Tematica Investing. It’s been a wild week of market moves, earnings reports and economic data all at once.

In addition to my regular visits with the Charles Payne on his Making Money with Charles Payne show on Fox Business, I had an opportunity to sit down with the folks at Boom-Bust on RT (the new home of The Larry King Show) to dig deep into our thematic-driven approach and discuss why most investors are investing wrong. That of course is NOT the case with us!

You can click on the image below to watch the whole interview.

In this week’s Tematica Investing:

  • Closing the books on July, the Tematica Select List had a number of positions that handily outperformed the S&P 500, which rose 3.6% for the month. Read More >>
  • We are issuing a Buy rating paint and coatings company Sherwin Williams (SHW) with a $350 price target as we add a splash of color to our Rise & Fall of the Middle Class investing theme. This is a new position and we are holding off with a protective stop loss for now. Read More >>
  • Updates, Updates, Updates – Recapping earnings from Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), PetMeds Express (PETS) and Under Armour (UA). Read More >>
  • Housekeeping! – Here’s what we’re watching when Physicians Realty Trust (DOC) and Walt Disney (DIS) report quarterly earnings. Read More >>

You can click below to download the full report.
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Marvel and DC could be duking it for the next few millennia 

Marvel and DC could be duking it for the next few millennia 

The next super-hero release is typically a must-see event for the staff here at Tematica, and it’s been that way probably since Richard Donner’s Superman hit the screen in 1978. Sure, there were dark periods — most of the 90’s to be specific — and there have been times where they all start to become formulaic. For the most part however, Directors have been able to reimagine these franchises when they get stale, and this is a proof-point for our Content is King thematic — no matter where the delivery channels and devices head, at the end of the day, the consumer craves great content and the superhero genre has been a consistent provider. Great news for Marvel owner Disney ([stock_quote symbol=”DIS”]) and the host of other studios that own the rights to various franchises, including Time Warner ([stock_quote symbol=”TWX”]) owned Warner Brothers and its rights to several DC Comics franchises.

Between Marvel and DC there are some 17,000 characters to choose from—enough for them to keep battling it out for box office dominance for the next 3,400 years.

Source: There Are Enough Superheroes for 3,400 Years of Movies | WIRED

☀ During this summer heatwave, what better move to make than this?

☀ During this summer heatwave, what better move to make than this?

Dog in front of fanHere at Tematica Research, just outside of Washington, DC, we are “enjoying” a good old fashion summer heatwave. The hottest summer in four years, yesterday marked the 6th straight day of highs at or above 90 degrees.

Now for those in the Midwest and Southwest, you’re probably thinking, that’s nothing!

The magic we have here in DC to throw into the mix of steamy temperatures is the fact that the city is built on what was once swamp land, and with that comes humidity — lots of it! So temps in the 90’s can easily climb up into the 105 degree heat index range, and with that comes that little bead of sweat that starts on the back of your neck, rolls down between your shoulder blades, further down to your lower back and then . . . well, you know where that story is going.

All of this reminds us of what put athletic apparel manufacturer Under Armour (UA) on the map — moisture-wicking synthetic fabric. The company that started in the basement of CEO Kevin Plank’s grandmother in 1996, has grown into a nearly $4 billion company that specializes in making sure all that sweat we humans produce is evaporated away rather than ending up where the sun don’t shine.

The heatwave across much of the country allows for this cheeky opening narrative to this story. The real reason we’re talking about Under Armour now is, given the pull-back in shares after the company’s 2nd quarter earnings announcement, we’re using the opportunity to make a move and add them to the Tematica Select List.

In this week’s Tematica Investing:

  • We are adding Under Armour (UA) shares to the Tematica Select List as part of our Rise & Fall investing theme, with a $55 price target. There is no recommended protective stop loss at this time.
  • Given the robust movie slate for 2H 2016, we are keeping Content is King Regal Entertainment (RGC) shares on the Tematica Select List, despite a modest $0.01 per share earnings miss for the June quarter.
  • We have earnings from Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) later this week, and we preview what’s expected and what we’ll be looking for in those reports.
  • Starbucks is added to Goldman’s Conviction List, more confirmation for our position in the coffee giant.
  • AT&T (T) loses the Yahoo! (YHOO) bid to Verizon (VZ), and we are rather happy with that.

You can click below to download the full report.

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What the new NFL, FootLocker ($FL), and Hershey ($HSY) stores in Times SQ are revealing to #thematicinvestors

What the new NFL, FootLocker ($FL), and Hershey ($HSY) stores in Times SQ are revealing to #thematicinvestors

“Everyone’s trying to find a way to maintain market share and also extend themselves in a different way that’s maybe not traditional to retail,” said David LaPierre, a vice chairman with the Global Retail Services Team at CBRE.

Source: What the changing tenant list in Times Square says about retail

 

A 40,000 square foot NFL store? Foot Locker opening a 36,000 store just for basketball shoes and apparel? a 6,000 square foot Hershey store? In the

Nope, just reacting to the evolving consumer.

Make no mistake about it, these stores will likely make any number-crunching CFO pull what ever remaining hairs they have left out ( we have no data to support that stereotype, but we suspect there are few CFO’s out there that wouldn’t want a better hairline.)

These stores aren’t likely to be big revenue-makers for these companies. Rather, they are what we call the “Experience Economy” and are coming about as a result of two thematics we track at Tematica Research: The Connected Society and Content is King (two of the top performers in our recently release Thematic Index)

The Connected Society, with its always-on broadband networks and connected devices, have transformed many the industry, none more than retailing, led by Amazon (AMZN). Why would anyone go to the mall when you can log into Amazon Prime, find what you want in 2 minutes, have it shipped to you maybe the same day if not max 2 days, pay nothing in shipping and handling, and likely get it cheaper?

When do people go out and shop? When they are bored and want to be entertained, which is why you see the American Mall being transformed into entertainment centers. Movie theaters, restaurants, gaming centers — these are the “stores” dominating the malls these days, providing shopping experiences that are just that, experiences. We would place the Apple Store in that category.

What these retailers are doing to creating “content” — not in the traditional sense of a video, book or article — but creating shopping experiences that extend the brand, and lead consumers to make purchases online.

The NBA was actually a leader in this space, going all the way back to the mid 1990’s when it created the Jam Session experience at it’s All-Star game, the Jam-Van which brought the NBA experience to small towns across America (and even the West lawn of the White House) and the NBA Store on Fifth Avenue.

For a sports league, this strategy made sense. But, now it’s being played out by the likes of Hershey, the most basic of consumer products there is, and many other brands.

When we see multiple thematics converging together — like what’s happening in Times Square — we move to the edge of our seat and take notice.

 

 

 

 

 

Yahoo reveals the secret to Content is King: it better actually be good content

Yahoo reveals the secret to Content is King: it better actually be good content

 

The Content is King thematic — one of the better performers in our Thematic Index — focuses on how the in today’s over-stimulating world, it’s the content providers that are breaking through the noise and building lasting interactions and engagement with users. Yahoo! (YHOO) would be what we call a negative confirmation of the theme — the once upon a time giant of the internet is quickly fading off into the distance with the prospects of being acquired by the old-school telecom giant Verizon and being folded into AOL. It’s downfall? Well, with it’s search business long-ago surpassed by the Google train, the company has floundered for nearly a decade attempting to provide some sort of engagement with users — in other words, trying to find some content users will use and come back for.

But Yahoo has had to curb those ambitions. It last year wrote off $42 million in expenses for developing three video series, including a revival of the popular “Community” show. In January, Yahoo also shut online-video portal Screen after spending more than $100 million to make its own shows, excluding the cost of the employees involved.

Source: Verizon Nears $5 Billion Deal for Yahoo’s Internet Businesses – WSJ

Thematic driver behind Dollar Shave Club acquisition — not the one you would think #DollarShaveClub, $UL

5x revenue buyout? Is this the Internet Bubble again?

In this case, Unilever’s $1 billion (yes, that’s billion with a “B”!) buyout of the Dollar Shave Club has less to do with its e-commerce chops than what it was able to accomplish with its content — develop a loyal following of men purchasing what basically falls under the Health & Beauty sector.

At the end of the day, it has been Dollar Shave Club’s content creation that has attracted millions of views of its edgy advertisements, and in turn subscribers to its monthly razor blade shipping service. So while many would think we would categorize this story under our Fountain of Youth investing thematic, where we are filing it is under Content is King. Yes, in today’s over-stimulating, multi-platform media world, the businesses that are succeeding are those that are focused on creating quality content, and letting the end user access it when and where they want. That same principle is applying more and more to consumer brands and their products.

 

Unilever paid about five times the revenue that Dollar Shave Club is expected to bring in this year. Much of that premium stems from the value Unilever placed on the razor seller’s brand and customer-relationship skills, he says. E-commerce startups without such a strong brand should expect buyout offers closer to one to two times their annual revenue, he says.

Source: Why Unilever Really Bought Dollar Shave Club – Bloomberg

Introducing the new Thematic Index by Tematica Research

Introducing the new Thematic Index by Tematica Research


— PRESS RELEASE —

 

Tematica Research Unveils The Thematic Index – An Alternative to Outdated Sector Investment Strategies

Handily outpacing the S&P 500 in the first half of 2016, the Thematic Index offers a holistic view of influences that can drive or stifle portfolio growth

 

Washington, D.C., July 18, 2016 – Today, Tematica Research, LLC is publicly unveiling its Thematic Index, designed to reflect the firm’s proprietary thematic investment approach by tracking over 150 companies across more than a dozen of the company’s investment themes. The thematic investing approach developed by Tematica Research looks at the intersection of evolving economics, demographics, psychographics, and technologies combined with regulatory and legislative mandates to identify pronounced thematic tailwinds that impact business and consumers, forcing companies to adapt or get left behind. Taking a cue from Tematica’s proprietary investing themes ranging from the Connected Society and Aging of the Population to Content is King and Guilty Pleasure, the Thematic Index reflects those companies positioned to benefit most from thematic drivers while sidestepping those that are most likely to hit a thematic wall.

Through the first six months of 2016, Tematica Research’s Thematic Index rose 9.28 percent, versus the S&P 500’s gain of just 2.69 percent. Strong performance on an absolute and relative basis was driven by a number of Tematica’s proprietary investing themes including Affordable Luxury, Aging of the Population, Cash-strapped Consumer, Content is King, and Scarce Resources. This performance continued the Thematic Index’s market-beating streak vs. the S&P 500 on a pro-forma basis from 2011 to 2015.

“In our view, the S&P 500’s industry and sector perspective is outdated in how it looks at the markets, using a perspective that is not only limited in scope, but is incapable of identifying investable tailwinds and business stalling headwinds,” said Christopher Versace, Chief Investment Officer Tematica Research. “By taking a holistic approach that examines the shifting economic, demographic, psychographic and technological landscapes, our Thematic Index provides a catalyst first view that cuts across industries. This view is enhanced not just by sector-based data points, but by distilling and corroborating signals from a wide range of sources to determine which companies have a thematic tailwind at their back or are about to run headfirst into a headwind.”

Many indexes ignore the fact that companies are increasingly moving beyond their traditional sectors — not simply expanding into new ones, but actually shaping other existing and emerging sectors. For example, traditionally viewed technology companies like Apple Inc. (AAPL) are addressing and influencing many other markets, from media to consumer apps and even payment methods that put them well beyond their original target markets and keep them firmly entrenched in our Connected Society investing theme.

Other companies, such as Boeing (BA), are benefitting from thematic tailwinds. Both Boeing and Airbus (EADSY) have recently boosted their respective aerospace outlooks over the next two decades, largely due to the improving socioeconomics in emerging markets that are part of Tematica’s Rise & Fall of the Middle Class investing theme.

“Today our principal business model is our published research through the Tematica Investing newsletter and Tematica Pro trading service; however, we are exploring ways in which both institutional and individual investors can utilize our proprietary thematic index via model portfolios and exchange traded funds (ETFs),” said Versace.

The Thematic Index is composed of more than 150 companies across more than a dozen investing themes including: Affordable Luxury; Asset Lite Business Models; Cash Strapped Consumer; Cashless Consumption; Content is King; Disruptive Technologies; Economic Acceleration/Deceleration; Fattening of the Population; Food with Integrity; Fountain of Youth; Guilty Pleasure; Safety & Security; Scarce Resources; and Tooling & Retooling.

 

 

 

 

Egg On Pershing Square’s Herbalife Short — Forbes

Egg On Pershing Square’s Herbalife Short — Forbes

Forbes.com

After months and months of mud raking and bravado in the financial press and no shortage of fear inducing presentations from the likes of Square Hedge Fund Manager Bill Ackman, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has settled with supplement company Herbalife . Since late 2012, Bill Ackman focused his cross hairs on Herbalife with an enormous short position in the shares.

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Professional sports teams recruiting and signing video gamers to contracts  $EA

Professional sports teams recruiting and signing video gamers to contracts  $EA

 

In yet another example of “Revenge of the Nerds”, the gamers of the world are starting to see a payoff for the thousands of hours spent playing video games. While still rare, the world of eSports is gaining enough momentum that the so-called “real sports” teams are seeing how they can get involved by actually signing “players” to contracts.

From a thematic investing perspective, the clear connection around this is the Connected Society thematic. But where we’ve placed many of the gaming companies are in the Content is King thematic because after all, even though the internet and the ability to connect online with other players is required, these games are taking share of wallet from cable companies, movies, and other entertainment outlets.

Sure, the professional sports leagues and gaming industry have been intertwined for decades. But when professional sports teams are starting to recruit and sign the actual players of the games to professional contracts, then that’s when this kind of development from our perspective moves into the mainstream and becomes an investible idea.

eSports is an umbrella term for competitive video-gaming, an industry that has mushroomed thanks to the spread of high-speed internet and the development of streaming platforms, such as Twitch.tv. . . .

Football clubs are exploring the opportunities of eSports in two ways.

Source: The Economist explains: Why sports teams are recruiting video gamers | The Economist