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Category Archives: Fattening of the Population

Woeful Earnings from Kroger Has Us Tightening Position in UNFI

Woeful Earnings from Kroger Has Us Tightening Position in UNFI

While many have been focused on the retail environment —and we count ourselves among them here at Tematica — we’ve also been watching the painful restaurant environment over the past few months. It’s been one characterized by falling same-store-sales and declining traffic – not a harbinger of good things when paired with rising minimum wages.

For those that are data nut jobs like we are, per TDn2K, same-store sales for restaurants fell 1.1 percent in May, a decline of 0.1 percentage points from April. In May, same-store traffic growth was -3.0 percent. Now for the perspective, the industry has not reported a month of positive sales since February 2016 – that’s 15 months! One month shy of the bad streak the May Retail Sales Report has been on. Clearly not a good operating environment, nor one that is bound to be friendly when it comes to growing revenue and earnings.

Reading those tea leaves, we’ve avoided that the restaurant aspect of our Fattening of the Population investing theme, and with Ignite Restaurant Group filing bankruptcy, Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) warning about its current quarter outlook we confident we’ve made the right decision.

But people still need to eat, and we’ve seen consumers increasingly flock back to grocery stores in 2017. Year to date, grocery retail sales are up 1.7 percent through May. Breaking down the data, we find that in recent months those sales have accelerated, with March to May 2017 grocery sales up 2.8 percent year over year and standalone May grocery store sales up 2.2 percent year over year.

Yet, when grocery company Kroger (KR) reported in-line earnings for its latest quarter, it lowered its 2017 EPS outlook, cutting in the process to $2.00-$2.05 from the prior $2.21-$2.25, with the current quarter to be down year over year. Aside from price deflation in the protein complex and fresh foods, the company cited its results continue to be pressured by rising health care and pension costs for employees, as well as the need to defend market share amid “upheaval” in the food retailing industry. We see that as company-speak for Kroger and its grocery store competitors having to contend with our

We see that as company-speak for Kroger and its grocery store competitors having to contend with our Connected Society investment theme that is bringing in not only Amazon (AMZN), MyFresh, and FreshDirect into the fray, but also leading Wal-Mart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Safeway among others to expand their online shopping capabilities, which in some cases includes delivery. Another reason not to get off the couch when shopping.

Candidly, we’re bigger fans of companies that focus on profits over market share given that short-term market share led strategies, often times with aggressive pricing, tend to sacrifice margins, but focusing on profits tends to lead to better market-share over the long-term. We’ve seen the “strategy” that Kroger is adopting many times in the past and while it may have short-term benefits, increasing prices later on, runs the risk of alienating customers.

Getting back to Kroger’s guidance cut, that news sent Kroger’s shares down almost 20 percent on Thursday and led to United Natural Foods (UNFI) shares to fall more than 3.5 percent, while Amplify Snacks (BETR) slumped by 2 percent. In our view, most of Kroger’s bad news was likely priced into UNFI’s mixed guidance last week when it reported its own quarterly earnings. Without question, 2017 has been a rough ride for UNIF shares despite the Food with Integrity tailwind, but despite Kroger’s guidance cut, management shared on the company earnings call that it continues “to focus on the areas of highest growth like natural and organic products.” Even Costco Wholesale (COST) recently shared it has room to grow in packaged organic food items, excluding fresh), which plays to the strengths at both United Natural Foods and Amplify Snacks.

 

Tightening Our Position in UNFI, But Staying the Course with BETR

With our Food with Integrity thematic tailwind still blowing and UNFI shares down just 7.5 percent relative to our blended cost basis on the Tematica Select List, we’ll remain patient with the position. That said, from a technical perspective the shares are near support levels and if they break through $38.50 the next likely stop is between $33 and $34. Therefore, to manage potential downside risk, we’re instilling a stop loss on UNFI shares at $38.50. As we do this, we’ll acknowledge the tougher operating environment and reduce our UNFI price target to $50 from $65, which still offers upside of just over 25 percent from current levels.

  • We are keeping our Buy rating on United Natural Foods, but trimming our price target back to $50 from $65.
  • We are instilling a stop loss at $38.50 to manage additional downside risk near-term.

With regard to Amplify Snacks, with today’s close the shares are down just 6 percent from our late April Buy recommendation. Generally speaking, these single digit stocks tend to be volatile and require some extra patience, and that’s the tact will take with BETR shares. Our price target remains $11.

  • We continue to have a Buy on Amplify Snacks (BETR) shares and our price target remains $11.

 

 

 

KFC officially launches Apple Pay at US restaurants $YUM $AAPL

KFC officially launches Apple Pay at US restaurants $YUM $AAPL

A step in the right direction for Cashless Consumption, and we have to wonder if KFC is a test bed for other Yum Brands (YUM) chains such as Pizza Hut and Taco Bell.  One more step toward the Cashless Consumption tipping point that is being spurred on by our Fattening of the Population investing theme.

 

The option is now available at “some” U.S. locations, and should eventually reach all of them by the end of the summer, KFC said. Like some other restaurants, people will be able to use Apple Pay both at the counter and in drivethroughs. The rollout is part of a broader adoption of mobile payments at KFC, as the restaurant is now also accepting Android Pay and Samsung Pay.

Source: KFC officially launches Apple Pay at US restaurants

Set a Protective Stop on a Winning Position to Lock in a Gain of More than 20%

Set a Protective Stop on a Winning Position to Lock in a Gain of More than 20%

Actions from this post

Ratings changes included in this dated post

  • Set a protective stop loss at $16 for Physicians Realty Trust (DOC) shares.
  • Maintained “Hold” rating all seven positions in the Tematica Select List — [stock_quote symbol=”AGNC”], [stock_quote symbol=”DOC”], [stock_quote symbol=”PM”], [stock_quote symbol=”PYPL”], [stock_quote symbol=”RGC”], [stock_quote symbol=”SH”] and [stock_quote symbol=”T”].

Despite ending on a high note, this past week was another rough one for the stock market with the S&P 500 falling another 1.3%. The increasingly familiar cast of characters — oil price swings, economic growth concerns, renewed European banking issues and the notion the Fed may not really know what it is doing — all were factors in the market decline this week. Friday’s rebound was led primarily by comments from the energy minister of OPEC member United Arab Emirates that probably sparked some short covering ahead of the holiday weekend, but, all told, oil still dipped for the week, as did the market. A flurry of buyback announcements and insider buying, including leading members of Amazon ([stock_quote symbol=”AMZN”]) and JPMorgan Chase ([stock_quote symbol=”JPM”]), also helped move the market higher on Friday.

From a GDR portfolio perspective, the vast majority of our positons once again outperformed the S&P 500 this week with notable high fliers including Regal Entertainment ([stock_quote symbol=”RGC”]) and our insurance position ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF ([stock_quote symbol=”SH”]), which is great to have during turbulent times like these. The one sore spot this week was Physicians Realty Trust ([stock_quote symbol=”DOC”]), which saw its shares drop some 5% this week following comments from competitor HCP Inc. (HCP). With DOC not reporting its quarterly results until Feb. 29, let’s be smart, given the current market, and set a protective stop loss at $16, which will lock in a profit of more than 22% for subscribers that heeded my call to add the shares back in June 2014.  By comparison, the S&P 500 is down 5.5% since then.

While early trading on Friday likely left investors feeling a little better, the reality is there are still a number of concerns that will pressure the market, particular if the comments from United Arab Emirates turn out to be something other than what the market is reading.

We saw this just a few weeks ago and prefer to be cautious ahead of what could be yet another “buy the rumor, sell the news” moment. Other shoes yet to drop include what’s going on with the European banks, the latest corporate earnings and additional economic data in the coming two weeks that will give us a clearer picture of how the current quarter is doing. Earlier this week, Deutsche Bank and others cut GDP expectations for the first half of 2016, and, subsequently, their full-year expectations as well. I expect more to follow.

In the latest issue of Tematica Investing, I shared with you a number of confirming data points for our thematic approach to investing — if you haven’t read it yet, you can find it here. The good news is those confirming data point just keep coming. This week, Gallup reports that obesity rates have hit an all-time high here in the United States at 28% and the number of diabetes cases are at a record high. Those findings indicate that the Fattening of the Population has not diminished one pound. I’m investigating several investments on this theme that are even more attractive, given the year-to-date market drop of just more than 9% for the S&P 500. I’m also keeping my eyes and ears open for more such confirming data points, and, of course, I’ll continue to share them. In fact, I’m working on a new way to bring them to you each week. Stay tuned for more on this

While the market is frustrating for sure, I would much rather “measure twice and cut once” to steal an old carpenter saying when it comes to putting capital to work in this market. We still have roughly 25% of the S&P 500 companies yet to report their quarterly results. In the upcoming holiday-shortened trading week, we’ll be getting 56 S&P 500 company earnings reports. Earnings expectations for the index this year continued to move lower this week to hit $122.42 per share (3.7% year over year) and I suspect it still has room to drift lower as those remaining S&P 500 companies report their results. The expected earnings rise of 3.7% is being aided by huge stock buyback activity. Given the number of upsized share repurchase authorizations that continue to be announced, this is likely to continue in light of some of the significant pullbacks in stock prices. From a fundamental perspective, I’ll look to sidestep any and all financial mumbo-jumbo related to that by continuing to focus on operating profit growth and operating margin expansion.

Turing our gaze to next week, we have no portfolio companies reporting their quarterly results, but we do have a full plate of economic data coming our way. This includes several regional Fed manufacturing surveys and housing reports, as well as the latest Industrial Production reading. We also have both inflation indicators — the PPI and CPI — for January coming at us. But given the moves in oil and other commodities, we are not expecting any pronounced changes in those indices. Following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony this week, all eyes will be looking to read into the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the Fed’s Jan 27th meeting when they are released this coming Wednesday, Feb. 17. My view remains that any next increase in rates by the Fed will come later rather than sooner, as I doubt the Fed wants to pour a combination of sand and water on the flailing fire that is the domestic economy amid the latest data.

Buckle up, it’s going to be another fun ride next week.

Enjoy the long weekend and I’ll update you again next week.

When it comes to Fitbit (FIT), is now the right time to jump in?

When it comes to Fitbit (FIT), is now the right time to jump in?

If you saw a great product on sale at the store, you would be excited, maybe even ecstatic, if it was one you had been looking at for some time. The same is true with stocks!

We all tend to get caught up in the emotional response of the market moving lower, which usually is viewed as a bad thing, rather than an OPPORTUNITY to buy shares at an even better price. When viewed through that lens, who doesn’t love it when stocks go on sale… so long as the fundamentals and business drivers remain intact.

Here’s a great example — at the Consumer Electronics Show held earlier this month, Fitbit ([stock_quote symbol=”FIT”]) announced its first smart watch, dubbed the Blaze  . . .

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Set a Protective Stop on a Winning Position to Lock in a Gain of More than 20%

Set a Protective Stop on a Winning Position to Lock in a Gain of More than 20%

Actions from this post

Ratings changes included in this dated post

  • Changing our rating on USA Technologies (USAT) to “Sell”, booking a near 30% return since our “Buy” rating was issued.
  • Updating Kraft Heinz (KHC) to a “Sell” rating, marking a hefty double-digit percentage return.
  • Closing out Disney (DIS), Under Armour (UA), Netflix (NFLX), LifeLock (LOCK), American Airlines (AAL) and Fitbit (FIT) — updated all with a “Sell” rating.
  • That leaves Physicians Reality Trust (DOC), Philip Morris (PM), American Capital Agency (AGNC), AT&T (T) and Regal Cinemas (RGC) in the Tematica Select List — all of which have dividend yields between 4.6% (Philip Morris) and 14% (American Capital Agency). Given the nature of their businesses as well as those dividend yields, those shares are apt to drum up investor interest as people look for safe havens.Let’s continue to hold these shares and “clip our dividend coupons” along the way.
  • Also, we recommend investors add some protection in the form of the ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF (SH), which trades in the opposite direction of the S&P 500.

What began as a bad start to 2016 only has gotten worse over the last few days. There are a number of reasons behind this move lower as II see the stock market, at best, moving sideways through earnings season, but more likely to come under additional pressure as expectations are scaled back. When I say expectations, I mean those for global growth, oil prices, corporate earnings and so on. You’ve seen me write more than a few times about the aggressive earnings expectations for the S&P 500 this year and the revisions lower that I’ve been expecting have only just begun.

In an environment like this, it tends to be shoot first and ask questions later, particularly as growth expectations get reset. While it is tempting to weather the storm, my preference is to lock in existing gains, limit losses and, above all, preserve capital at times such as this one. I know times like now, when the market seemingly goes down day after day, can be frustrating, if not confusing. I would not be surprised if you were having flashbacks to March 2008, wondering if we are heading for a repeat of what happened from May 2008 to March 2009, a period of intense pain for the stock market.

The famous phrase, “better safe than sorry,” comes to mind. For us, that means exiting the following positons:

  • Changing our rating on USA Technologies (USAT) to “Sell”, booking a near 30% return since our “Buy” rating was issued.
  • Updating Kraft Heinz (KHC) to a “Sell” rating, marking a hefty double-digit percentage return.
  • Closing out Disney (DIS), Under Armour (UA), Netflix (NFLX), LifeLock (LOCK), American Airlines (AAL) and Fitbit (FIT) — updated all with a “Sell” rating. 
  • That leaves Physicians Reality Trust (DOC), Philip Morris (PM), American Capital Agency (AGNC), AT&T (T) and Regal Cinemas (RGC) in the Tematica Select List — all of which have dividend yields between 4.6% (Philip Morris) and 14% (American Capital Agency). Given the nature of their businesses as well as those dividend yields, those shares are apt to drum up investor interest as people look for safe havens.Let’s continue to hold these shares and “clip our dividend coupons” along the way.
  • Also, we recommend investors add some protection in the form of the ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF (SH), which trades in the opposite direction of the S&P 500.

Over the next few weeks, we could get a bounce in the market here and there, but I would feel much better putting capital to work with a strong conviction that the storm has passed. As such, I will keep one eye on the market (the indicator of price) and the other on our investing themes as I look for data points that show companies whose businesses will continue to perform regardless of what’s happened in the stock market over the last month or will happen in the next month or next few months. If you were with me while I write this update, you would hear me muttering questions like some of these:

  • Has the drop in the stock market changed the outlook for cyber attacks and related threats in 2016? Safety & Security
  • Despite the unseasonably warm temperatures in the eastern United States thanks to El Niño, has the California drought situation been eradicated? Scarce Resources
  • Has the shift toward streaming and other digital content consumption slowed because the stock market has lost close to $1 trillion in value, lessening the demand for content? Connected Society
  • By some strange hocus-pocus, have people been “de-aged” so that less than 15% of the population is over 65 years old? Aging of the Population
  • As if by magic, did all of those people with little to no retirement savings suddenly land on firm financial footing? Aging of the Population
  • Over the last few days, has the costly and deadly impact of obesity and the prevalent condition of so many people being overweight been reversed? Fattening of the Consumer
  • Have retailers, both brick & mortar as well as online, shifted to only taking cash and checks as payment for goods and services? Cashless Consumption
  • Are people all of a sudden smoking less in the last few days? If anything, I would argue those who do indulge in this guilty pleasure are probably smoking more and having an extra drink or two along with it. Guilty Pleasure/Affordable Luxury
  • Has the domestic middle class started to expand dramatically in January? Rise and Fall of the Middle Class

And so on… Foods with Integrity… Asset-Lite Business Models… Economic Acceleration/Deceleration… Tooling & Retooling…

The bottom line is these investing themes of ours continue to benefit from the shifting and evolving landscape that is the intersection of the global economy, changing demographics, disruptive technologies, regulatory mandates and other tailwind drivers.

As I said earlier, the stock market is simply the indicator of price.

If you saw a great product on sale at the store, you would be excited, maybe even ecstatic, if it was one you had been looking at for some time. The same is true with stocks!

We tend to get caught up in the emotional response of the market moving lower, which usually is viewed as a bad thing, rather than an OPPORTUNITY to buy shares at an even better price. When viewed through that lens, who doesn’t love it when stocks go on sale… so long as the fundamentals and business drivers remain intact. To me, this says we’ll be able to buy back a number of the growth positions at the same or lower prices when the current market storm has cleared and things have settled down. Let’s be prudent and patient together.

Turn off the music, close up the bar and call it a night

Turn off the music, close up the bar and call it a night

While the “bad news is good news” move in the market over the last few days is decidedly more enjoyable than those gut-wrenching market falls of late, it’s like a party that goes on for too long; at some point someone has to turn off the music, close up the bar and call it a night.
We’ve already seen some warning signs that it might be time to head out before things get awkward in the form of negative earnings pre-announcements for several companies.

 

In this week’s issue of Tematica Insights:

  • With the September ISM Manufacturing Survey out, what does it mean for inflation and any potential Fed action on rates later this year.
  • Is this a good time to jump on buying opportunities with all the negative earnings pre-announcements coming out?
  • China’s adoption of Western diet demonstrates how thematics can play-out in society.
  • Tematica Select List company Skyworks ([stock_quote symbol=”SWKS”]) makes a move, which has adds an interesting wrinkle to our Connected Society thematic.

Download Monday Morning Kickoff

 

 

Companies Mentioned
  • Alcoa (AA)
  • Amazon.com (AMZN)
  • American Airlines (AAL)
  • Apple Inc. (AAPL)
  • Bank of America (BAC)
  • Caterpillar (CAT)
  • Chegg Inc. (CHGG)
  • ConAgra (CAG)
  • Corning Inc. (GLW)
  • Dunkin’ Brands (DNKN)
  • DuPont (DD)
  • FedEx (FDX)
  • Hewlett Packard (HPQ)
  • Illumina (ILMN)
  • Immersion Corp. (IMMR)
  • Kimco Realty (KIM)
  • Lifelock (LOCK)
  • Merk & Co. (MRK)
  • Netflix (NFLX)
  • Nu Skin (NUS)
  • Palo Alto Networks (PANW)
  • PayPal (PYPL)
  • PMC-Sierra (PMCS)
  • Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)
  • Starbucks Inc. (SBUX)
  • Swift Transportation (SWFT)
  • Synaptics Inc. (SYNA)
  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)
  • The Container Store (TCS)
  • U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS)
  • United Natural Foods (UNFI)
  • Verizon Communications (VZ)
  • Wal-Mart (WMT)
  • Walt Disney (DIS)
  • Whole Foods Market (WFM) Xylem, Inc (XYL)
  • Yum! Brands (YUM)