Making a move on MBLY and FIT options while swapping on DIS
Welcome back and welcome to 2016! By now, I suspect you’ve probably heard how the stock market ended 2015 — the S&P 500 dipped 0.73% for the year while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 2.23% — marking the worst performance since 2008. Looking back, it was a tumultuous year, with wide swings in the indices as investors grappled with the Greek showdown, the realization that China’s economic woes were far greater than expected heading into 2015 (which was reflected in commodity prices!) and the U.S. dollar strengthening and weighing on domestic companies while those in the euro zone benefited. Finally, there was the Groundhog Day-like nature of the Federal Reserve, which finally boosted interest rates in early December. If we include dividends, and who doesn’t love dividends, the S&P 500 returned 1.4% in 2015. By comparison, hedge funds lost more than 3%, on average, according to early estimates from hedge-fund-research firm HFR Inc.
All in all, 2015 is a year that many investors would like to put in the rear-view mirror. While I don’t necessarily disagree and acknowledge the stock market is a forward-looking animal, I’d remind you that the path that starts 2016 is laid at the end of the prior year. For us, that means looking ahead this week to the data about the end of 2015 that will be published in the coming week that starts to form the last economic snapshot of 2015. My suspicion is the rash of data we’ve seen toward the end of 2015 is exactly what we’ll be getting this week when we get the global PMI data from Markit Economics as well as the Institute for Supply Management on the domestic front.
Against that backdrop, as well as the one that surprisingly calls for a reacceleration in earnings from the S&P 500 in 2016 (up 7.7% year over year compared to the 1.4% expected for all of 2015), my plan is to start 2016 off on a far more selective note. I will use both disruptive technologies and pain points to steer us.
On the disruptive technology front, the coming week is also home to one of the most closely watched technology events, the annual Consumer Electronics Show (CES), which runs from Jan. 6 (Wednesday) to Jan. 9 (Saturday). As tends to be the case, I expect a flurry of announcements, particularly in the early days. However, don’t expect a peep from Apple (AAPL) because it does not formally present or attend the event. CES 2016 does feature keynote presentations from Intel (INTC), Volkswagen AG (VLKAY), Netflix (NFLX), General Motors (GM), IBM (IBM), Samsung and Alphabet’s (GOOGL) YouTube. I’d also note “The Future of Urban Mobility” Keynote on Jan. 7 (Thursday) that features presentations from Mobileye (MBLY), Qualcomm (QCOM), Robert Bosch GMBH and the U.S. Department of Transportation. To me, all of this points to fodder for the Connected Car and sets the stage for the North American International Auto Show in Detroit that spans Jan. 11-24.
Arguably the best stand-alone play on Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) mandates across the globe and on the automotive industry adopting semi-autonomous and eventually autonomous driving technologies is Mobileye (MBLY). The shares have been beaten down toward the end of 2015 due, in part, to a short call by Citron Research. However, the company has yet to disappoint expectations, continues to generate cash and has racked up a number of impressive automotive OEM partners and program wins. I see this week’s keynote at CES as a move that will propel the shares higher as the shorts begin to cover their positions. Let’s capitalize on that by adding the Mobileye February $46 calls (MBLY160219C00046000) that last traded at $1.65 and expire Feb. 19.
Turning to pain points, to say that I have indulged in all sorts of cookies and cakes as well as larger-than-usual meals would be something of an understatement. If you don’t put on a few extra pounds around the holidays, you’re just not really enjoying them.
Exiting the holidays, however, I’ve noticed more than few pieces of clothing are… fitting a little more snugly than before. From a PowerTrend perspective, you’d be correct in saying that I’ve personally contributed to the “Fattening of the Population” investing theme these past few weeks. For that reason, as I’ve started 2016, I’m leaning on my Fitbit (FIT) device, a wearable fitness device reminds us to get moving. While some may point to Fitbit’s products as more like an Amazon (AMZN) Kindle than Apple’s (AAPL) Apple Watch, I’d note that I love reading on my Kindle over an iPad or other tablet, and I think the streamlined functionality along with the more affordable price points compared to the Apple Watch and other current wearables, positions Fitbit well for the intersection of my “Always On, Always Connected” and “Fattening of the Population” themes.
According to research firm IDC, Fitbit was the market-share leader for wearables in the September 2015 quarter, with 22% share thanks to its Charge and Surge fitness trackers. What we found most interesting in IDC’s findings was that despite the growth of smart watches, interest in fitness trackers has not fallen. We attribute this to the combination of more affordable price points than smart watches, making products like those from Fitbit more palatable to consumers and corporate wellness programs.
But despite those prospects, as the market closed 2015, FIT shares have fallen 43% since peaking at $51.64 in early August. Already we’ve had positive comments from Morgan Stanley and others that are pointing towards solid holiday season demand for the shares, with Barclays upgrading FIT shares to a Buy rating with a $49 price target coming out of the holiday shopping weekend. With Fitbit’s products on several 2015 holiday gift-giving guides and consumers prone to shedding the holiday pounds come January, the company’s products and shares seem like a natural fit this holiday season. Let’s position ourselves accordingly by adding the FIT February $30 calls (FIT160219C00030000) that last traded at $3.10 and expire Feb. 19.
Unlike the last few weeks of December, the news around Disney was anything but quiet as its “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” was not only the fastest film to surpass the $1 billion mark at the box office. it also rallied the lagging North American box office to exceed $11 billion for 2015, which makes it the highest-earning year at the North American box office in movie history per Rentrak. Making the news even sweeter, per CNBC, Disney’s opening weekend percentage of 60% is above the industry average of around 55% and the higher revenue split is likely to continue throughout the extended run of the movie. Disney also secured a four-week commitment from theater chains instead of the normal three-week arrangement. This strong box office presence and extended run bode well for Disney’s other businesses, and I’d note the latest “Star Wars” installment has yet to open in China. Needless to say, I see the Disney machine capitalizing heavily on the film, as well as its coming Marvel, Pixar and “Star Wars” films in 2016.
Our DIS January $115 calls (DIS160115C00115000) have certainly taken it on the chin, and with the company not likely to report its quarterly earnings until after the January options expire, let’s exit those and reposition ourselves with the DIS February $110 calls (DIS160219C00110000) that last traded at $2.07 and expire Feb. 19. As we execute that trade, remember to hold your Regal Entertainment (RGC) January $20 calls.