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Once again, the herd catches up on Universal Display (OLED) shares

Once again, the herd catches up on Universal Display (OLED) shares

After languishing for several weeks, shares of Disruptive Technology company Universal Display (OLED) shares over the last two days popped $16, or more than 14%, to finish close last night at $127.10. The catalyst for the move was Deutsche Bank initiated coverage on the company with a Buy rating and a price target of $135, in line with our own.

While we like the herd catching up to our way of thinking, the surge in the shares comes with less than two weeks until Apple’s (AAPL) next iPhone event on September 12. We suspect over the next two weeks the iPhone rumor mill will be once again cranking up, with much chin wagging over the number of models, form factors and how many models will be employing an organic light emitting diode display. This likely means that at least in the short term, OLED shares are likely to melt higher, but as we’ve seen many, many times the devil is in the details when it comes to Apple’s new products. That means expectations in the near-term could get ahead of themselves, and we note this with 6% upside to our $135 target.


Make no mistake, we continue to see a bright future ahead for Universal Display and its organic light emitting diode chemicals and IP business over the coming quarters as the number of applications climbs alongside increasing screen sizes for smartphones and TVs. This has us long-term bullish on the shares, and while it’s likely that we might have to raise our price target on OLED shares again before the end of 2017, the risk we run in the very short-term is the shares are ahead of themselves at least temporarily.

Could this result in a “buy the rumor, sell the news” set up given Apple’s upcoming event? It’s possible, but given the medium- to longer-term growth prospects, we would see that as an opportunity for those that have missed out on scooping the shares thus far. As we’ve shared in the last few weeks, the $110-$115 share price band makes for a compelling proposition on risk-to-reward trade-off for patient investors. As new data becomes available, we’ll incorporate it into our thinking, including our price target.

  • At current levels, subscribers should “Hold” Universal Display (OLED) shares rather than commit fresh capital.
  • Our price target remains $135, but given expanding market applications for its products and licensing business, we’re inclined to be owners of the shares for the medium to longer term.
Samsung Electronics confirms our thesis on Applied Materials

Samsung Electronics confirms our thesis on Applied Materials

 

Given all the attention that organic light emitting diode displays are getting ahead of Apple’s (AAPL) pending launch of its next iPhone, it’s understandable that Applied Material’s (AMAT) display business would be the center of attention. Early this morning, however, Samsung Electronics confirmed the other key drivers behind our bullish stance on AMAT shares – ramping semiconductor capital spending to not only meet growing global demand for chips but also China’s intent to become a key manufacturing hub for chips.

With Samsung accounting for 12%-18% of Applied revenue stream over the last three years, we see Applied as very well positioned to capture capital spending dollars at Samsung for capacity in China as well as around the globe in the current and coming quarters.

  • Our price target on Applied Materials (AMAT) shares remains $55.

SEOUL (Reuters) – Samsung Electronics Co Ltd expects to invest $7 billion over the next three years to expand its NAND memory chip production in China’s northwestern city of Xi’an, the South Korean tech giant said on Monday. In a regulatory filing Samsung said it approved $2.3 billion of the expected investment of $7 billion on Monday.

The firm accounted for 38.3 percent of global NAND flash memory chip revenue in April-June, the latest data from researcher IHS showed.

China is trying to develop its own memory chip producers but it is likely to be several years before they can compete with existing makers, analysts said. Samsung Electronics said a memory chip boom that propelled it to record profit in the second quarter was likely to continue in the July-to-September quarter.

Source: Samsung Electronics to invest $7 billion to boost China NAND chip output

YouTube’s  ‘breaking news’ addition further complicates things for broadcast TV

 

Whether it’s on the go, at work or at home, streaming content continues to account for a growing portion of consumer content consumption. It’s, therefore, no surprise that Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB) and others are looking to join Netflix (NFLX) and Amazon (AMZN) in delivering proprietary content. On the flip side, Disney (DIS) is angling to bring its content directly to consumers rather than through Netflix or broadcast mechanisms.

We see these moves signaling more competition ahead that will force companies to up the ante. Already Amazon and Facebook are looking to bring live sporting events to consumers, and now Google’s YouTube is planning on adding a streaming news section for users to digest “Breaking News.”  This adds to its growing deployment of YouTube TV and raises more questions as to the speed of the demise of broadcasted content. As we see it, the intersection of our Connected Society and Content is King investing themes are poised to deliver more creative destruction that will radically alter the existing playing field much the way the internet skewered the newspaper industry.

YouTube has started rolling out a “Breaking News” section in people’s feeds today across platforms as Alphabet continues to tailor custom content playlists to users logged into Google Accounts, Android Police reports.For most, YouTube is a place to hop from one video to the next and descend down rabbit holes, but browsing anything like a feed has become less straightforward than other platforms, which makes the breaking news section an interesting addition.

As the video sharing site has grown older, the content has grown more produced with YouTube personalities mounting “celebrity” careers, while commentary-heavy videos grow in popularity over the raw video that is more common on Facebook and Twitter.For YouTube’s part this has grown to be a very valuable distinction.

While Facebook’s has seen its video views increase heavily by way of quick-and-dirty videos, YouTube seems to be somewhere where people invest major time browsing, even if there seems to be just as much noise. In June, YouTube CEO Susan Wojcicki announced that the site had 1.5 billion watching an hour of video each on mobile alone.

Source: YouTube starts delivering ‘breaking news’ on its homepage across platforms – TechCrunch

Content is King movie studios eyeing Connected Society solutions like  Apple iTunes rentals

Content is King movie studios eyeing Connected Society solutions like  Apple iTunes rentals

 

Through our thematic lens, we see this as Content is King meeting the Connected Society, a theme that has led to much creative destruction over the last several years. With Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN) and now even Apple (AAPL) moving into proprietary content that is streamed to wherever and whenever consumers want, perhaps it’s about time the movie studios ranging from Sony (SNE) to Disney (DIS) and 21st Century Fox (FOXA) get on board. Should it come to pass, it will smack Regal Cinema (RGC), AMC (AMC) and other movie theater businesses right in the high margin snack business. We suspect the Cash-strapped Consumer is hoping for such a move to happen.

Movie studios looking to set up early-access rentals with companies like Apple and Comcast may reportedly push ahead with those negotiations and skip revenue sharing with theater chains, if the latter don’t reduce their demands.Early-access rentals would let people stream movies through services like iTunes just weeks after their premieres, possibly while they’re still in theaters. To appease exhibitors, studios have discussed a revenue split, but balked at proposed long-term commitments up to 10 years, according to Bloomberg sources. For the end customer, early rentals would likely cost between $30 and $50.

Source: Movie studios may sidestep theater chains in deals for early Apple iTunes rentals

Tencent scales thematic investments in payments, AI and cloud

Tencent scales thematic investments in payments, AI and cloud

Our Content is King theme isn’t the only one getting a lot of attention this week as more companies look to invest not only in payments, which we see as Cashless Consumption but also artificial intelligence, a slice of our Disruptive Technologies theme. As we look at these moves, we are reminded of the global nature of our investing themes. This means that Amazon (AMZN), MasterCard (MA), Visa (V), Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOGL), Apple (AAPL), PayPal (PYPL) and the like need to be aware of moves made by Tencent (TCHEY), Alibaba (BABA) and other players outside the US.

Tencent, the Chinese mobile games and social media company, is gearing up to increase its investments in online payments, cloud services and artificial intelligence.Still, with competition on the rise in the digital payments market, the investments are necessary. “We think there is still a lot of growth potential from Tencent’s cloud and payment business,” BOCOM International Analyst Connie Gu said in the Reuters report.

China’s Tencent isn’t only investing in artificial intelligence, payments and cloud services. Earlier this month, it showcased how it is also investing in other areas. Essential Products, the smartphone company that was started by Andy Rubin — the creator of the Android mobile operating system — raised $300 million in venture funding from a cadre of investors, including Tencent. According to a news report in The Wall Street Journal, the company announced the list of investors betting it can take on Apple and Samsung Electronics in the smartphone market, reported the paper.

Source: Tencent Increases Investments In AI, Payments | PYMNTS.com

Apple to spend big to ride our Content is King theme 

Apple to spend big to ride our Content is King theme 

 

Thus far Apple (AAPL) has stayed on the Content is King theme sidelines, but a combination of recent hire and a purported $1 billion check book to develop content change that. Granted, that $1 billion is well below what Netflix (NFLX) and Amazon (AMZN) are spending, but Apple has Apple TV – a solid platform that is bringing Amazon’s Prime Video and Wal-Mart’s (WMT) Vudu video service under its offering. As we like to say at Tematica, the only thing better than having one of our investment tailwinds behind a company’s back is having several of them.

Apple appears to be taking original content production very seriously. Building on significant talent hires, the Wall Street Journal writes Apple has readied a $1 billion budget to ‘procure and produce’ content over the next year.The report says the sum is about half what HBO spent on production last year.

Apple could launch up to ten new shows, with Apple SVP Eddy Cue said to have ambitions to offer shows that rival Game of Thrones.Try Amazon Prime 30-Day Free TrialApple’s initial rounds of content have not been runaway successes, with Planet of the Apps and Carpool Karaoke receiving bad-to-mild reviews from critics.

Reach of the shows has also been limited to users with Apple Music subscriptions.However, until recently, it didn’t really feel like Apple was giving much priority to original content efforts. With a large wallet and premiere talent leading the video programming division, it is likely that the quality of Apple’s in-development programming will also be higher.

Source: Apple to spend $1bn on original content and produce up to 10 new shows over the next year, according to report | 9to5Mac

Barron’s Gets Behind our OLED, AMAT and DIS Positions

Barron’s Gets Behind our OLED, AMAT and DIS Positions

Over the weekend, among its many articles Barron’s published two pertaining to several positions on the Tematica Select List — Disruptive Technology plays Universal Display (OLED), Applied Materials (AMAT) and Content is King company Disney (DIS). In our view, each of these articles is bullish for the corresponding shares, but even so let’s review:

In “Corning, Samsung: China’s OLED Spend May Be Big Trouble in 2018, Says Bernstein”  following conversation with 23 companies and industry experts, investment firm Bernstein share their view that, “China is a big force in a rise in spending for display technologies, particularly, OLED, which is taking over from LCD, and also for spending on semiconductors, with the move to so-called 3-D NAND chips.”  The authors of the report go on to say:

“OLED capacity ramp-ups from the Chinese players are even more aggressive than we thought, and hence equipment and material players are benefiting from this ‘OLED capex cycle’. On the semiconductor equipment side, we are seeing a similar story – rising capex for 3D NAND coming from China will translate into good demand for semi equipment makers. Finally, for memory, DRAM supply is tight for now, so read-through is positive for DRAM pricing through 2017.”

We certainly see this rather positive and confirming for our investment thesis on Universal Display and Applied Materials. While many have and will likely continue to focus on Apple (AAPL) and its next iPhone iteration, we see a larger shift going on, much like the one we saw more than a decade ago when light emitting diode (LED) technology exploded. As LED applications expanded from mobile phones and backlighting for LCD TVs to automotive lighting, Cree (CREE) shares took off, which was very positive for our readers at the time since we had a Buy rating on the shares at the time. This time around, we see the same happening for Universal Display shares, especially since we see Universal’s business benefitting from its intellectual property licensing business. In our view that makes the company more like Qualcomm (QCOM) than Cree.

Turning to the second article, “Disney’s Iger On Movies, Parks, ESPN” the author hits a number of points that power our investment thesis — an improving movie slate and recent park price increases that should drive revenue higher this year. The article also bangs a familiar drum that is ESPN, which continues to hemorrhage customers as more and more cut the cord, but it also mentions that Disney is expected to launch its own over the top ESPN service later this year as well as ESPN landing on other over the top services like our own AT&T’s (T) DirectTV NOW. As we recently shared, Disney is also focusing on cost control inside ESPN, including laying off TV, radio, and online personalities as part of a plan to “trim $100 million from the 2016 budget and $250 million in 2017.”

Getting back to Disney’s film business, its latest release, live-action “Beauty and the Beast” delivered a record-setting weekend box office opening with $170 million. Not only was this a record-setting March opening weekend, but the seventh largest domestic opening of all-time. Internationally, “Beauty and the Beast” delivered an estimated $180 million in ticket sales from 44 material markets for an estimated $350 million global opening, making it the #14 on the all-time best list. We can already see the Disney merchandise flying off the shelves now and later this year when the DVD and video on demand releases hit just in time for year-end holiday shopping. Much the way Disney is adding Frozen and Star Wars franchise attractions to its park, we would not be surprised to see a Beauty and the Beast addition as well.

  • We continue to rate Universal Display (OLED) shares a Buy with a $100 price target.
  • Our rating on Applied Materials (AMAT) remains a Buy with a $47 price target. 
  • We continue to rate Disney (DIS) shares a Buy with a $125 price target.
Verizon and AT&T Go Unlimited Data, Now Chevrolet Does Too

Verizon and AT&T Go Unlimited Data, Now Chevrolet Does Too

We’re seeing Connected Society mobile carriers morph their business models toward Content is King given their thinking that people will want to consume content on all these mobile devices. It’s true, so true in fact that Chevrolet is following AT&T and Verizon in offering an unlimited data plan for Chevrolet owners who have an in-vehicle OnStar 4G LTE Wi-Fi hotspot. Priced at $20/month, it’s another step forward for the Connected Car; in 2016 Chevrolet owners and their passengers streamed the equivalent of more than 17.5 million hours of video. Let’s just hope the driver had his or her eyes on the road and hands on the wheel… that said does it mean movie time will now be had in the car once self-driving cars go mainstream?

The new plan is priced at $20/month with service provided by AT&T.AirPodsChevrolet is claiming to be the first major automaker to offer an unlimited in-vehicle data plan.

The automaker shared interesting data about its customers who have been using the OnStar LTE hotspot in Chevrolet vehicles over the last few years. In 2016 in-vehicle data usage grew almost 200% as compared to 2015.To put this data usage in perspective, Chevrolet owners and their passengers streamed the equivalent of more than 17.5 million hours of video in 2016.

“We have contractors bidding jobs in their Silverados, families streaming movies in their Suburbans and Malibus and everyone tapping into the cloud for music,” said Alan Batey, president of GM North America and global head of Chevrolet. “With the most affordable unlimited 4G LTE data plan in the auto industry, the widest availability of Apple CarPlay and Android Auto and new connected services like OnStar AtYourService, our momentum can only grow.”

As the first automaker to offer 4G LTE connectivity across its entire retail portfolio, Chevrolet has sold more than 3.1 million OnStar 4G LTE-connected vehicles since June 2014 and has more vehicles on the road equipped with 4G LTE than any other automaker.

Chevrolet’s new unlimited prepaid data plan via OnStar and AT&T will be available starting tomorrow for $20/month. It doesn’t seem to be a limited time offer (as least for now) and looks to be a great deal as currently the $20/month option is for 4GB with $40/month giving customers 10GB.

Source: Chevrolet is first automaker to offer in-vehicle unlimited data for $20/month | 9to5Mac

Yet again, we’re boosting the Price Target for this Disruptive Technology company

Yet again, we’re boosting the Price Target for this Disruptive Technology company

Our shares of Universal Display (OLED) continued on a tear yesterday as they climbed more than 7 percent, bringing the year to date return to a staggering 55 percent. Last week the company reported robust quarterly revenue and earnings, which as we commented had a bullish outlook. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a positive piling on with regard to the shares and the robust outlook for organic light emitting diode displays, which includes adoption in Apple’s (AAPL) next iPhone iteration, but a number of other applications as well. We’ve used the last few days to revisit our 12-24 month price target on the shares, and we are boosting that one again to $100 from $85. At the current share price that new price target offers roughly 18 percent upside.

Given the sharp rise over the last few days, we aren’t surprised by the shares giving back some of the gains today. As we commented yesterday, President Trump’s speech to Congress tonight could present a bump in the road for the stock market, which has been on a steady move higher over the previous 12 days. We interpret that march higher as the market expecting some degree of details from Trump in his speech tonight. If the speech does underwhelm with scant details, we could see the market interpret that as a push out in the timing for Trump’s fiscal stimulus agenda and tax overhaul. Again, as we shared this morning, our view has been that we are not likely to see any impact from Trump’s initiatives until late in the second half of 2017 and the stock market needs to recognize that.

That’s a long way of saying we could see OLED shares pullback further tomorrow should the market get a case of digestion mixed with expectation resetting. Subscribers that are underweight OLED shares should view that as an opportunity given the ramping demand and industry capacity for organic light emitting diode displays.

  • Our new price target on OLED shares is $100, which has us keeping our Buy rating intact.
  • We continue to have a protective stop loss at $70 for the shares.
Boosting Our Price Target on this Disruptive Technology Company Again

Boosting Our Price Target on this Disruptive Technology Company Again

Last night shares of Disruptive Technology company Universal Display (OLED) popped more than 10% in after-market trading as the company delivered substantially better than expected December quarter results and instituted a new dividend program. Granted the quarterly dividend of $0.03 per share equates to an extremely low dividend yield, but the program, which is expected to include regular quarterly dividend payments, is a signal that Universal sees enough cash generation to invest in the business and return capital to shareholders as the organic light emitting diode market expands.

 

Details Behind Universal Display’s Performance

For the quarter, Universal reported EPS of $0.55 per share, $0.14 ahead of consensus expectations on revenue that rose 20% year over year to $74.6 million, besting expectations of $69 million for the quarter. Breaking down the company’s revenue, licensing fees grew 27% year over year to $43.6 million (58% of revenue), material sales rose 5% to $29.2 million (39%) with the remainder generated by Universal’s contract research business (2%). Simply put, we see licensing business and materials business responding to the rising industry demand for organic light emitting diode displays, a phenomenon of which we are still in the early innings.

As expected, on the earnings call, Universal’s management team trotted out a number of examples of new products and market opportunities that are increasing demand for organic light emitting diode displays, which in turn drive demand for the company’s materials and licensing businesses. We see those examples, which included smartphones from ASUS and Huawei, TVs from Panasonic, LG, automotive lighting applications (tail lights, interior lighting, indicator lights and displays), augmented reality, virtual reality,  as solid reminders that organic light emitting diode display adoption spans far more than just Apple (AAPL) and the next generation iPhone.

If we were to be nit-picky, the only issue to be had with Universal’s earnings report was that management guided 2017 revenue in line with expectations. Coming into last night’s earnings report, consensus revenue for 2017 stood at $242.7 million across just over a handful of analysts and Universal’s guidance put revenue at $230-$250 million. Baked into that company guidance are two $45 million royalty payments from Samsung that land in the second and fourth quarter. In our view that guidance seems conservative, but we also recognize the biggest swing factor in the company’s revenue is not so much new capacity additions, but when that capacity moves past installation and testing, and into active production.

Given expanding capacity from a number of companies including Samsung, LG Display, AUO Optronics, Japan Display, Sharp and China BOE Technology, which is reflected in the order book at capital equipment company Applied Materials (AMAT) and its competitors, there is ample confirmation of expanding capacity over the next few years. Where it gets tricky is predicting the quarterly timing of productive capacity coming on stream. Given our long-term investment horizon, we’re inclined to sit back and be patient as the continued step up in capacity likely means an expanding business at Universal Display and boosting our price target on the shares along the way.

Earlier this week, shares of Applied Materials joined Universal Display shares on the Tematica Select List, and we continue to rate AMAT shares a Buy with a $47 price target.