Menu
Weekly Issue: Many Confirming Data Points from Retail Sales Report

Weekly Issue: Many Confirming Data Points from Retail Sales Report

 

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ISSUE:

  • Our price target on Amazon (AMZN) shares remains $1,750
  • Our price target on United Parcel Service (UPS) remains $130
  • Our price target on Costco Wholesale (COST) remains $210.
  • Our price target on Habit Restaurant (HABT) shares remains $11.50
  • Our price target on Applied Materials (AMAT) shares remains $65.
  • Our price target on Apple (AAPL) shares remains $200.

 

Yesterday, we received the latest monthly Retail Sales report and it once again confirmed not only several of our investing themes, but also several of our Tematica Investing Select List holdings as well. While I and others at Team Tematica put these and other such reports through the grinder to ensure we understand what the data is telling us, I have to say some reports are more of a pleasure to read than others. In this case, it was a great read. First, let’s dig into the actual report and then follow up with some thematic insight and commentary. 

April Retail Sales – the data and comments

Per the Census Bureau, April total Retail Sales & Food Services rose 4.7% year over year, with the core Retail Sales ex-auto parts and food services up 4.8% compared to April 2017. A modest downtick compared to the year over year growth registered in March, but a tad higher than the February comparison.

Subscribers will not be bowled over to learn the two key retail drivers were gas stations (up 11.7% year over year) followed by Nonstore retailers (9.6%). The two categories that have been a drag on the overall retail comparisons – Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores and Department Stores – continued to do the same in April falling  1.1% and 1.6%, respectively. Scanning the last few months, the data tells us things have gotten tougher for those two categories as the last three months have happened.

With gas stations sales up nearly 11% over the last three months compared to 2017, real hourly earning’s barely up per the latest from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and consumer debt up to 26% of average disposable income (vs. 22% during the financial crisis per the latest LendingTree Consumer Debt Outlook) there’s no way to sugar coat it – something had to give and those two continue to take the brunt of the pain. As gas prices look to move even higher as we switch over to more costly summer gas blends and interest rates poised to move higher, it means consumers will continue to see discretionary spending dollars under pressure.

In keeping with our Connected Society and Cash-strapped consumer investing themes, consumers are turning to digital shopping to hunt down bargains and deals, while also saving a few extra bucks by not heading to the mall. That is, of course, positive confirmation for our position in Amazon (AMZN) shares as well as United Parcel Service (UPS) shares, which have had a quiet resurgence thus far in 2018. That move serves to remind us that connecting the dots can lead to some very profitable investments, and as I like to say – no matter what you order from Amazon or other online shopping locations, the goods still need to get to you or the person for which they are intended. I continue to see UPS as a natural beneficiary of the accelerating shift toward digital commerce.

  • Our price target on Amazon (AMZN) shares remains $1,750
  • Our price target on United Parcel Service (UPS) remains $130

 

April retail sales confirms our bullish stance on Costco

Costco Wholesale (COST) shares have been on a tear since their February bottom, and in my view each month we get a positive confirmation when Costco reports its monthly sales data as increasingly Cash-strapped Consumers look to stretch their disposable dollars was had in Costco Wholesale’s (COST) April same-store-sales report. For the month, Costco’s US sales excluding gas and foreign exchange rose 7.9%, once again showing the company continues to take consumer wallet share. As for the critics over how, late Costco had been to digital commerce, over the last few months its e-commerce sales have been up 31%-41% each month. While still an overall small part of Costco’s revenue stream, the management team continues to expand its digital offerings putting it ahead of many traditional brick & mortar focused retailers.

Finally, we need to touch on one of the key profit generators at Costco – membership fee revenue, which is tied to new warehouse openings.  If we look at the company’s recent quarterly earnings report we find that 73% of its operating profit is tied to that line item. As part of its monthly sale report, Costco provides an updated warehouse location count as well. Exiting April Costco operated 749 warehouse locations around the globe, the bulk of which are in the U.S. and that compares to 729 warehouses exiting April 2017. That number should climb by another 17 new locations by the end of August and paves the way for continued EPS growth in the coming quarters.

  • Our price target on Costco Wholesale (COST) remains $210.

 

Two favorable data points for recently added Habit Restaurant shares

Last week, we added shares of Habit Restaurant (HABT) to the Tematica Investing Select List with an $11.50 price target. Since then, we’ve had two positive data points, including one found in yesterday’s Retail Sales report. The first data point was from TDn2K, a firm that closely watches monthly restaurant sales. For the month of April, TDN2K reported same-store sales for the month rose 1.5%, the best showing in over 30 months. The April Retail Sales report showed year over year April retail sales at Food services & drinking places rose 3.8%, bringing the trailing 3-month total to up 3.6% on a year over year basis.

While our investment thesis on HABT centers on the company’s geographic expansion, these data points point to an improving business for its existing locations. Paired with the pending menu price increase, we see this data pointing a stronger operating environment in the coming quarters.

  • Our price target on Habit Restaurant (HABT) shares remains $11.50

 

Gearing up for earnings from Applied Materials

After tomorrow night’s close Disruptive Technologies company Applied Materials (AMAT) will report its quarterly earnings. Expectations call for it to deliver EPS of $1.14 on revenue of $4.45 billion. For those at home keeping score, those figures are up 44% and 26%, respectively, on a year over year basis.

As the current earnings season got underway, we heard very positive commentary on the semiconductor capital equipment market from several competitors, including Lam Research (LRCX). This lays the groundwork for an upbeat report despite the softness we are seeing in the organic light emitting diode display market. With more smartphone models poised to adopt that display technology, including more favorably priced ones from Apple (AAPL), Applied’s outlook for its Display business tomorrow night could be the canary in the coal mine for shares of Universal Display (OLED).

With regard to the core semiconductor capital equipment business, I continue to see longer-term opportunities for it associated with a number of emerging technologies and applications (growing memory demand, 5G chips sets, 3D sensing, smarter automobiles and homes, and augmented reality to virtual reality and the Internet of Things) that will drive incremental chip demand in the coming years. I’m also hearing that China’s state-backed semiconductor fund, The National Integrated Circuitry Investment Fund, is closing in on an upsized 300 billion-yuan fund ($47.4 billion) fund vs. the expected 120 billion-yuan ($18.98 billion) to support the domestic chip sector. This buildout was one of my focal points behind adding AMAT shares to the Select List over a year ago.

Since then AMAT shares are up more than 50%, and this upsized demand from China is poised to drive them even higher in my view. Before that can happen, however, the semiconductor industry has taken a leading role in the current U.S.-China trade conflict. This means I’ll continue to monitor this development closely.

As we get ready for the upcoming earnings report, let’s also remember Applied buyback program. I suspect the company was in buying shares during the April lows. We’ll get a better sense when we compare year over year share counts once I have the earnings report in my hands.

  • Our price target on Applied Materials (AMAT) shares remains $65.

 

Tim Cook confirms Apple’s move into original content

Apple’s move into original content has to be one of the worst-kept secrets in some time. There have been hiring’s of key people for key roles as well as content partners that have spilled the beans, but now Apple CEO Tim Cook quietly confirmed the move while appearing on “The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations” on Bloomberg Television by saying

“We are very interested in the content business. We will be playing in a way that is consistent with our brand,” Cook told Bloomberg. “We’re not ready to give any details on it yet. But it’s clearly an area of interest.”

A summary of that conversation can be found here, and my $0.02 on this is Apple will be looking to leverage original content to increase the sticky factor for its devices as well as attract new customers for those devices. This is similar to the strategy behind its services business that includes iCloud, Apple Music, Apple Pay and other offerings. We could hear more of this in a few weeks at Apple’s 2018 World Wide Developer Conference but given the expectation for its content to roll out after March 2019 odds are we won’t hear much just yet.

  • Our price target on Apple (AAPL) shares remains $200.

 

 

 

Apple: Don’t listen to the short-term chatter

Apple: Don’t listen to the short-term chatter

 

Over the last few days there has been a slew of headlines for Tematica Investing Select List holding Apple (AAPL), one of the core companies behind our Connected Society investing theme. There has been an upgrade of the shares as well as a downgrade, respectively, by investment firms Maxim and Longbow Research. That’s not the only push/pull that we’ve seen in the share price. The other has been favorable data vs. the historical seasonal downtick in smartphone volumes as we move from the December quarter into the March one.

The favorable data came in the form of the latest CIRP numbers, which indicate Apple increased its U.S. iPhone activations ten points in the final quarter of 2017, from a 29% share in the September quarter to 39% by December. More significantly, new phone activations were up five points year over year, from 34% in Q4 2016 to 39% in the same quarter last year.

Part of the downgrade at Longbow, which lowered its rating to Neutral from Buy, likely stems from the seasonal slowdown in smartphone sales we are once again hearing about from component suppliers. Given the magnitude of the iPhone on Apple’s overall business, it’s not surprising that this is once again coming into focus. Apple has previously warned that investors should avoid reading too much into supply chain speculation because of its size and complexity. With Apple having launched three new flagship products in 2017, including the higher-priced and higher-margin iPhone X, we’re not going to overthink this but we will be paying attention.

Apple is set to report its December quarter earnings on Feb. 1, which will give us all the key metrics for the quarter. Odds are Apple will offer some vague guidance on smartphone volumes, and the earnings conference call will likely be littered with folks trying to get Apple CEO Tim Cook and others to spill something. But Apple has been doing this a long time, and they are well rehearsed in not answering questions they don’t want to.

This means zeroing in on what is said by key suppliers in the Apple ecosystems both ahead of Apple’s reporting date and after. The day before Apple’s earnings, Qualcomm (QCOM) will issues it results. Soon after, we’ll hear from RF chip company Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) and chip company Cirrus Logic (CRUS), which focuses on audio and voice signal applications and reports on Feb. 5. Another company I’ll be listening to is Broadcom (AVGO), which supplies a variety of connectivity chips including Bluetooth and WiFi to the smartphone markets as well as others.

As we look to put these iPhone outlook puzzle pieces together, there are other moves afoot at Apple. Yesterday, as part of its tax repatriation moves, the company announced that over the next five years it expects to contribute $350 billion to the US economy, create 20,000 jobs in the process, and bump up its Advanced Manufacturing Fund to $5 billion from $1 billion. The stock market greeted that news with open arms as Apple shares moved higher. The real move to be had, however, will be when Apple shares its view on how tax reform will impact its 2018 EPS. Current estimates call for the company to earn $11.46 per share this fiscal year, up from $9.21 last year. We’re also be listening to see if Apple ups its quarterly dividend of $0.63 per share or authorizes another share repurchase program.

Understandably, that news took over the headlines, but there was other news to be had. According to a new report from Variety, following the pull out by HBO, Apple will take over the lease at a new Culver City, California 128,000-square-foot development. This adds to Apple’s Los Angeles area footprint in a meaningful way, seeing that Culver City is also the location where Beats is headquartered. The widespread belief is this will be the space where Apple houses its original content efforts. After sitting on the sidelines for a number of years, Apple is slowly dipping its toe into the content creation waters, moving past that silly Carpool Karaoke show with pending programs with Reese Witherspoon and Jennifer Aniston, Nichelle Tramble Spellman’s “Are You Sleeping,” and a 10-episode comedy sketch show starring Kristen Wiig.

Despite its reputation, Apple tends not to be a first mover, but rather one that makes its move at the tipping point of a technology or consumer behavior. We’ve seen this time and time again with new technologies and the iPhone, and we suspect we are seeing this with its push into original content. Given Apple’s array of connected devices and changing demands from viewers that increasingly opt to stream the content they want, when they want it, on the device they want it on without having to buy it, the direction makes perfect sense. From our perspective, here at Tematica, it was only a matter of time for Apple to make this move as it looks to follow the example set by Netflix – leverage original content to lure subscribers — to make its devices even stickier with consumers. Hopefully, Apple will have a stronger starting lineup than Amazon (AMZN) has with its original Prime Video offering.

Finally, it appears that we will soon see Apple’s virtual assistant in a smart speaker, better known as HomePod, hitting shelves. Reportedly, Apple supplier Inventec has started shipping the device, and expectations are that between Inventec and Hon-Hai Precison Industry, the other HomePod supplier, Apple will ship 10-12 million units in 2018. Much like other new non-iPhone products, including the Apple Watch, the HomePod probably won’t have a significant impact on Apple’s revenue and earnings during its first year, but it does help shore up Apple’s efforts in the Connected Home alongside Apple TV at a time when Amazon and Alphabet/Google are making inroads.

And here’s a wild thought, given all the digital assets at Apple’s disposal and its growing presence in the payments industry, how long until we hear rumors of an “AppleCoin”?

The bottom line on Apple is we continue to see the company as a core holding of our Connected Society and Cashless Consumption investing themes, and the added tailwind of our Content is King investing theme could improve its position in our increasingly digital lifestyle.

  • Our price target on Apple shares remains $200, and we are inclined to be buyers on weakness following the company’s December quarter earnings report on Feb. 1

 

Apple to spend big to ride our Content is King theme 

Apple to spend big to ride our Content is King theme 

 

Thus far Apple (AAPL) has stayed on the Content is King theme sidelines, but a combination of recent hire and a purported $1 billion check book to develop content change that. Granted, that $1 billion is well below what Netflix (NFLX) and Amazon (AMZN) are spending, but Apple has Apple TV – a solid platform that is bringing Amazon’s Prime Video and Wal-Mart’s (WMT) Vudu video service under its offering. As we like to say at Tematica, the only thing better than having one of our investment tailwinds behind a company’s back is having several of them.

Apple appears to be taking original content production very seriously. Building on significant talent hires, the Wall Street Journal writes Apple has readied a $1 billion budget to ‘procure and produce’ content over the next year.The report says the sum is about half what HBO spent on production last year.

Apple could launch up to ten new shows, with Apple SVP Eddy Cue said to have ambitions to offer shows that rival Game of Thrones.Try Amazon Prime 30-Day Free TrialApple’s initial rounds of content have not been runaway successes, with Planet of the Apps and Carpool Karaoke receiving bad-to-mild reviews from critics.

Reach of the shows has also been limited to users with Apple Music subscriptions.However, until recently, it didn’t really feel like Apple was giving much priority to original content efforts. With a large wallet and premiere talent leading the video programming division, it is likely that the quality of Apple’s in-development programming will also be higher.

Source: Apple to spend $1bn on original content and produce up to 10 new shows over the next year, according to report | 9to5Mac

Previewing AT&T (T) Earnings and Watching Capital Spending Levels for Dycom (DY)

Previewing AT&T (T) Earnings and Watching Capital Spending Levels for Dycom (DY)

After today’s market close when Connected Society company AT&T (T) reports its 1Q 2017 results we will get the first of our Tematica Select List earnings for this week. This Thursday we’ll get quarterly results from both Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) with several more to follow next week.

Getting back to AT&T, consensus expectations call for the company to deliver EPS of $0.74 on revenue of $40.57 billion for the March quarter. As we have come to appreciate, these days forward guidance is as important as the rear view mirror look at the recently completed quarter; missing either can pressure shares, and mission both only magnifies that pressure. For the current (June 2017) quarter, consensus expectations are looking for AT&T to earn between $0.72—$0.79 on revenue of $40.2-$41.3 billion.

Setting the state for AT&T’s results, last week Verizon (VZ) issued its March quarter results that saw both its revenue and earnings miss expectations. Buried in the results, we found decreased overage revenue, lower postpaid customers and continued promotional activity led to a year on year revenue delicate for Verizon Wireless. The culprits were the shift to unlimited plans and growing emphasis on price plans that likely led to customer switching during the quarter.

If AT&T were still a mobile-centric company, we’d be inclined to re-think our investment in the shares, but it’s not. Rather, as we’ve discussed over the last several months, given the pending merger with Time Warner (TWX), AT&T is a company in transition from being a mobile carrier to a content-led, mobile delivery company. As we’ve seen in the past, consumers will go where the content is (aka Content is King investment theme), and that means AT&T’s content portfolio provides a competitive moat around its mobile business. In many ways, this is what Comcast (CMCSA) established in buying NBC Universal — a content moat around its broadband business… the difference is tied to the rise of smartphones, tablets and other mobile content consumption devices that have consumers chewing content anywhere and everywhere, and not wanting to be tied down to do so.

For that reason, we are not surprised by Comcast launching Xfinity Mobile, nor were we shocked to hear Verizon is “open” to M&A talks with Comcast, Disney (DIS) and CBS (CBS) per CEO Lowell McAdam. In our view, Verizon runs the risk of becoming a delivery pipe only company, and while some may point to the acquisitions of AOL and Yahoo, we’d respond by saying that both companies were in troubled waters and hardly must-have properties.

With AT&T’s earnings, should we see some weakness on the mobile side of the business we’re inclined to let the stock settle and round out the position size as we wait for what is an increasingly likely merger with Time Warner.

 

We’re Also on the Look Out for Datapoints Confirming Our Position in Dycom (DY)

As we listen to the call and dig through the results, we’ll also keep an eye on AT&T’s capital spending plans for 2017 and outer years, given it is Dycom’s (DY) largest customers (another position in our Tematica Select List). As we digest that forecast and layer it on top of Verizon’s expected total capital spending plan of $16.8-$17.5 billion this year, we’ll look to either boost our price target on Dycom or revise our rating given we now have just over 8 percent upside to our $115 price target.

 

Tematica Select List Bottomline on AT&T (T) and Dycom (DY)
  • Our price target on AT&T (T) shares remains $45; should the shares remain under $40 following tonight’s earnings, we’ll look to scale into the position and improve our cost basis.
  • Heading into AT&T’s earnings call, our price target on Dycom (DY) shares remains $115, which offers less than 10 percent upside. This earnings season, we’ll review customer capital spending plans to determine addition upside to that target, but for now given the pronounced move in DY shares, up more than 18 percent in the last month, we’d hold off committing fresh capital at current levels.

 

 

Apple to get into the Content is King theme

Apple to get into the Content is King theme

Apple and the iPhone have been at the forefront of our Connected Society investment theme and Apple Pay lands the company in our Cashless Consumption theme as well. For a long time, Apple has held off creating original content preferring instead to be a platform via iTunes and its app ecosystem for others to distribute their content (Netflix on iPads, iPhones and Apple TV as an example). With the battle for the device consumer heating up, Apple is taking a page out of Content is King companies Disney (DIS) and Comcast (CMCSA) and moving into content to shore up its competitive position. We’ve seen Netflix do this and Amazon (AMZN) is charging ahead as well. From a thematic sense, if Apple can get the programming right, three thematic tailwinds are better than one or two.

Apple Inc. is planning to build a significant new business in original television shows and movies, according to people familiar with the matter, a move that could make it a bigger player in Hollywood and offset slowing sales of iPhones and iPads.These people said the programming would be available to subscribers of Apple’s $10-a-month streaming-music service, which has struggled to catch up to the larger Spotify AB. Apple Music already includes a limited number of documentary-style segments on musicians, but nothing like the premium programming it is now seeking.

Source: Apple Sets Its Sights on Hollywood With Plans for Original Content – WSJ