Menu
Weekly Issue: Key Developments at Apple (AAPL) and AT&T (T)

Weekly Issue: Key Developments at Apple (AAPL) and AT&T (T)

Key points inside this issue:

  •  Apple’s 2019 iPhone event – more meh than wow
  •  GameStop – It’s only going to get worse
  •  Elliot Management gets active in AT&T, but its prefers Verizon?
  •  California approves a bill that changes how contract workers are treated
  • Volkswagen set to disrupt the electric vehicle market

I’m going to deviate from the usual format we’ve been using here at Tematica Investing this week to focus on some of what’s happening with Select List residents Apple (AAPL) and AT&T (T) this week as well as one or two other things. The reason is the developments at both companies have a few layers to them, and I wanted to take the space to discuss them in greater detail. Don’t worry, we’ll be back to our standard format next week and I should be sharing some thoughts on Farfetch (FTCH), which sits at the crossroads of our Living the Life, Middle Class Squeeze and Digital Lifestyle investing themes, and another company I’ve been scrutinizing with our thematic lens. 

 

Apple’s 2019 iPhone event – more meh than wow

Yesterday, Apple (AAPL) held its now annual iPhone-centric event, at which it unveiled its newest smartphone model as well as other “new”, or more to the point, upgraded hardware. In that regard, Apple did not disappoint, but the bottom line is the company delivered on expectations serving up new models of the iPhone, Apple Watch and iPad, but with only incremental technical advancements. 

Was there anything that is likely to make the average users, not the early adopter, upgrade today because they simply have to “have it”? 

Not in my view. 

What Apple did do with these latest devices and price cuts on older models that it will keep in play was round out price points in its active device portfolio. To me, that says CEO Tim Cook and his team got the message following the introduction of the iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max last year, each of which sported price tags of over $1,000. This year, a consumer can scoop up an iPhone 8 for as low as $499 or pay more than $1,000 for the new iPhone 11 Pro that sports a new camera system and some other incremental whizbangs. The same goes with Apple Watch – while Apple debuted a new Series 5 model yesterday, it is keeping the Series 3 in the lineup and dropped its price point to $199. That has the potential to wreak havoc on fitness trackers and other smartwatch businesses at companies like Garmin (GRMN) and Fitbit (FIT). 

Before moving on, I will point out the expanded product price points could make judging Apple’s product mix revenue from quarter to quarter more of a challenge, especially since Apple is now sharing information on these devices in a more limited fashion. This could mean Apple has a greater chance of surprising on revenue, both to the upside as well as the downside. Despite Apple’s progress in growing its Services business, as well its other non-iPhone businesses, iPhone still accounted for 48% of June 2019 quarterly revenue. 

Those weren’t the only two companies to feel the pinch of the Apple event. Another was Netflix (NFLX) as Apple joined Select List resident Walt Disney (DIS) in undercutting Netflix’s monthly subscription rate. In case you missed it, Disney’s starter package for its video streaming service came in at $6.99 per month. Apple undercut that with a $4.99 a month price point for its forthcoming AppleTV+ service, plus one year free with a new device purchase. To be fair, out of the gate Apple’s content library will be rather thin in comparison to Disney and Netflix, but it does have the balance sheet to grow its library in the coming quarters. 

Apple also announced that its game subscription service, Apple Arcade, will launch on September 19 with a $4.99 per month price point. Others, such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) are targeting game subscription services as well, but with Apple’s install base of devices and the adoption of mobile gaming, Apple Arcade could surprise to the upside. 

To me, the combination of Apple Arcade and these other game services are another nail in the coffin for GameStop (GME). 

 

GameStop – It’s only going to get worse

I’ve been bearish on GameStop (GME) for some time, but even I didn’t think it could get this ugly, this fast. After the close last night, GameStop reported its latest quarter results that saw EPS miss expectations by $0.10 per share, a miss on revenues, guidance on its outlook below consensus, and a cut to its same-store comps guidance. The company also shared the core tenets of a new strategic plan. 

Nearly all of its speaks for itself except for the strategic plan. Those key tenets are:

  • Optimize the core business by improving efficiency and effectiveness across the organization, including cost restructuring, inventory management optimization, adding and growing high margin product categories, and rationalizing the global store base. 
  • Create the social and cultural hub of gaming across the GameStop platform by testing and improving existing core assets including the store experience, knowledgeable associates and the PowerUp Rewards loyalty program. 
  • Build digital capabilities, including the recent relaunch of GameStop.com.
  •  Transform vendor and partner relationships to unlock additional high-margin revenue streams and optimize the lifetime value of every customer.

Granted, this is a cursory review, but based on what I’ve seen I am utterly unconvinced that GameStop can turn this boat around. The company faces headwinds associated with our Digital Lifestyle investing theme that are only going to grow stronger as gaming services from Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet come to market and offer the ability to game anywhere, anytime. To me, it’s very much like the slow sinking ship that was Barnes & Noble (BKS) that tried several different strategies to bail water out. 

Did GameStop have its time in the sun? Sure it did, but so did Blockbuster Video and we all know how that ended. Odds are it will be Game Over for GameStop before too long.

Getting back to Apple, now we wait for September 20 when all the new iPhone models begin shipping. Wall Street get your spreadsheets ready!

 

Elliot Management gets active in AT&T, but its prefers Verizon?

Earlier this week, we learned that activist investor Elliot Management Corp. took a position in AT&T (T). At $3.2 billion, we can safely say it is a large position. Following that investment, Elliot sent a 24-page letter telling AT&T that it needed to change to bolster its share price. Elliot’s price target for T shares? $60. I’ll come back to that in a bit. 

Soon thereafter, many media outlets from The New York Times to The Wall Street Journal ran articles covering that 24-page letter, which at one point suggested AT&T be more like Verizon (VZ) and focus on building out its 5G network and cut costs. While I agree with Elliot that those should be focus points for AT&T, and that AT&T should benefit from its spectrum holdings as well as being the provider of the federally backed FirstNet communications system for emergency responders, I disagree with its criticism of the company’s media play. 

Plain and simple, people vote with their feet for quality content. We’ve seen this at the movie box office, TV ratings, and at streaming services like Netflix (NFLX) when it debuted House of Cards or Stranger Things, and Hulu with the Handmaiden’s Tale. I’ve long since argued that AT&T has taken a page out of others’ playbook and sought to surround its mobile business with content, and yes that mobile business is increasingly the platform of choice for consuming streaming video content. By effectively forming a proprietary content moat around its business, the company can shore up its competitive position and expand its business offering rather than having its mobile service compete largely on price. And this isn’t a new strategy – we saw Comcast (CMCSA) do it rather well when it swallowed NBC Universal to take on Walt Disney and others. 

Let’s also remember that following the acquisiton of Time Warner, AT&T is poised to follow Walt Disney, Apple and others into the streaming video service market next year. Unlike Apple, AT&T’s Warner Media brings a rich and growing content library but similar to Apple, AT&T has an existing service to which it can bundle its streaming service. AT&T may be arriving later to the party than Apple and Disney, but its effort should not be underestimated, nor should the impact of that business on how investors will come to think about valuing T shares. The recent valuation shift in Disney thanks to Disney+ is a great example and odds are we will see something similar at Apple before too long with Apple Arcade and AppleTV+. These changes will help inform us as to how that AT&T re-think could play out as it comes to straddle the line between being a Digital Infrastructure and Digital Lifestyle company.

Yes Verizon may have a leg up on AT&T when it comes to the current state of its 5G network, but as we heard from specialty contractor Dycom Industries (DY), it is seeing a significant uptick in 5G related construction and its top two customers are AT& T (23% of first half 2019 revenue) followed by Verizon (22%). But when these two companies along with Sprint (S), T-Mobile USA (TMUS) and other players have their 5G network buildout competed, how will Verizon ward off subscriber poachers that are offering compelling monthly rates? 

And for what it’s worth, I’m sure Elliot Management is loving the current dividend yield had with T shares. Granted its $60 price target implies a yield more like 3.4%, but I’d be happy to get that yield if it means a 60% pop in T shares. 

 

California approves a bill that changes how contract workers are treated

California has long been a trend setter, but if you’re an investor in Uber (UBER) or Lyft (LYFT) — two companies riding our Disruptive Innovators theme — that latest bout of trend setting could become a problem. Yesterday, California lawmakers have approved Assembly Bill 5, a bill that requires companies like Uber, Lyft and DoorDash to treat contract workers as employees. 

This is one of those times that our thematic lens is being tilted a tad to focus on a regulatory change that will entitle gig workers to protections like a minimum wage and unemployment benefits, which will drive costs at the companies higher. It’s being estimated that on-demand companies like Uber and the delivery service DoorDash will see their costs rise 20%-30% when they rely on employees rather than contractors. For Uber and Lyft, that likely means pushing out their respective timetables to profitability.

We’ll have to see if other states follow California’s lead and adopt a similar change. A coalition of labor groups is pushing similar legislation in New York, and bills in Washington State and Oregon could see renewed momentum. The more states that do, the larger the profit revisions to the downside to be had. 

 

Volkswagen set to disrupt the electric vehicle market

It was recently reported that Volkswagen (VWAGY) has hit a new milestone in reducing battery costs for its electric vehicles, as it now pays less than $100 per KWh for its batteries. Given the battery pack is the most expensive part of an electric vehicle, this has been thought to be a tipping point for mass adoption of electric vehicles. 

Soon after that report, Volkswagen rolled out the final version of its first affordable long-range electric car, the ID.3, at the 2019 Frankfurt Motor Show and is expected to be available in mid-2020.  By affordable, Volkswagen means “under €30,000” (about $33,180, currently) and the ID.3 will come in three variants that offer between roughly 205 and 340 miles of range. 

By all accounts, the ID.3 will be a vehicle to watch as it is the first one being built on the company’s new modular all-electric platform that is expected to be the basis for dozens more cars and SUVs in the coming years as Volkswagen Group’s pushed hard into electric vehicles. 

Many, including myself, have been waiting for the competitive landscape in the electric vehicle market to heat up considerably – it’s no secret that all the major auto OEMs are targeting the market. Between this fall in battery cost and the price point for Volkswagen’s ID.3, it appears that the change in the landscape is finally approaching and it’s likely to bring more competitive pressures for Clean Living company and Cleaner  Living Index constituent Tesla (TSLA). 

 

The Tematica take on Apple’s September quarter results

The Tematica take on Apple’s September quarter results

Key points inside this issue:

  • Our price target on Apple (AAPL) shares remains $250.

Our shares of Apple (AAPL), which sit on Tematica’s Select List as part of our Digital Lifestyle investing theme, traded off today following last night’s September quarter earnings report and Wall Street’s reception. While Apple surprised on the upside for both September quarter revenue and EPS, the company not only issued its characteristically conservative guidance but also revealed that as of this quarter it will no longer no longer be providing unit sales data for iPhone, iPad, and Mac. In the September quarter, the all-important iPhone business saw units flat year over year, but revenue climb 29% due entirely to the improved average selling price associated with newer models.

Despite double-digit growth at Apple’s Services business to roughly $10 billion (16% of sales) and more than 30% year over year growth at its Other Products (7% of sales), that reporting decision raised questions and reignited bearish concerns over the health of the smartphone market, particularly for newer, higher priced models as well as the iPad, which saw its units fall 6% year over year. Going forward Apple will also report gross profit and margins for its products and services business as well as rename its Other category to Wearables, Home and Accessories.

What we suspect is Apple is attempting to do is get investors to focus on the combined business model of its devise and services, which to us reflects increasingly how consumers are using them. Much like the razor and razor blade business, people buy the iPhone, iPad or Mac and chew through content delivered through Apple’s digital content offerings that range from iTunes to Apple Music as well as recently acquired Texture. We see this move in line with the expected launch of Appel’s proprietary streaming video content that in our view will only help makes those devices even stickier with users.

Clearly, the combination of soft guidance paired with this reporting change is what is spooking the shares as it paints the picture that Apple has something to hide. That led several Wall Street firms, including Bank of America Merrill Lynch to downgrade Apple shares to Neutral from Buy and cut its price target to $220.

Understandable, but in my view, it misses the notion that Apple is increasingly becoming a device and services company. This fits with Apple opting to break out the gross profit and gross margin performance of the two businesses going forward. From my perspective, Apple has just completed updating its product line, including the more affordable iPhone XR, which bodes well for the replacement demand among the faithful Apple install base. On net, higher ASPs will drive revenue and profits while Apple continues to flex its balance sheet, repurchasing shares and paying dividends.

The bottom line is I continue to see Apple as a key player in the increasingly digital lifestyle, and while we wait for the upcoming 5G upgrade cycle. Given our $165-ish cost basis, odds are we won’t have a chance to scale into the position at better prices; hopefully, that will be the case but if we do, I’ll be opportunistic.

  • Our price target on Apple (AAPL) shares remains $250.

 

 

WEEKLY ISSUE: Investment themes changing the diamond industry, Apple’s WWDC 2018 and more

WEEKLY ISSUE: Investment themes changing the diamond industry, Apple’s WWDC 2018 and more

  • Following Apple’s WWDC 2018 keynote presentation, we are boosting or price target on Apple (AAPL) shares to $210 from $200.
  • As MGM Resorts (MGM) avoids Las Vegas strike disruptions, our price target remains $39
  • Paccar (PCAR) shares catch an upgrade; our price target remains $85
  • We are adding shares of Charles & Covard (CTHR) to the Tematica Investing Contender List as part of our Affordable Luxury investing theme.

As the market gets ready for the upcoming trade summit, we are seeing trade tensions heat up ahead of that date. We’ve also got a new government in Italy, and while the recent economic data has been positive, I’m seeing increasing signs of inflation in the system. To me, that looks likely to lead the Fed to the increasingly expected four interest rate hikes this year.

I suspect all of the issues discussed above — trade, interest rates and other geopolitical tensions — will be recurring ones that will likely lead to an ebb and flow of uncertainty in the market, ultimately keeping it rangebound in the near-term. In that type of environment, I’ll continue to look for new opportunities utilizing our thematic approach to investing. As compelling situations are uncovered, we’ll look to be opportunistic.

With a number of things to get to, including how the diamond industry is beginning to pivot in response to some of our thematic tailwinds, I’ll cut it there for this week…

 

Apple’s WWDC 2018 was far from boring

Earlier this week, following Apple’s (AAPL) World Wide Developer Conference (WWDC) 2018 that focused on the company’s various software platforms the shares hit a multi-year high at $193.42 before settling modestly lower. I’ve been waiting in the wings to bump our price target on this Connected Society company higher and following this week’s keynote that introduced the software updates that consumers will have access to later this year, I am boosting that target to $210 from $200.

The expectation coming into the event was Apple would focus on software refinements and performance. While that was the case, there were a number of new features that in our view did more than that.

Now let’s discuss some of the announcements…

Apple got to it early on with iOS, taking the wraps of iOS 12 that will power both past and present iPhone and iPad models. While the initial conversation was on performance improvements, Apple soon ticked off a number of features including more robust Augment Reality capabilities, including multiplayer gaming; deeper integration of its digital assistant Siri in the OS and with third party apps; overhauled News, Stocks, Voice Memo and iBooks apps; new features for iMessage, including Memoji; and at long last group Facetime. There was some thought Apple would also introduce more robust controls to limit usage, and it does so with updates to its Do Not Disturb and Notifications capabilities, but also introduced Screen Time that should help people as well as parents restrict usage time on iOS devices.

Next up was watchOS, which continued its focus on connectivity and activity as it debuted Walkie Talkie mode that allows people to quickly communicate with each other. The iOS improvements with Siri are also finding their way to Apple Watch as is a new Podcast app. Apple also shared later this year it will debut Student ID support with both iOS and watchOS. Student ID will allow students to gain access from dorms and dining halls to gyms and libraries, along with campus events or attending class, making purchases from campus retail shops and bookstores, and paying for laundry and items from vending machines. Apple expects to roll this out with a handful of universities and expand it over time.

Turning to the OS that powers Apple TV, better known as tvOS, it gains support for Dolby Atmos surround sound, as well as a streamlined sign-in protocol for cable providers.

As for macOS, the upcoming version dubbed Mojave, will have  all new features like a dedicated Dark Mode, an all-new App Store, tweaks to the desktop, and the migration of several iOS apps. That migration for News, Stocks, Voice Memo and Home is part of a longer-term initiative to port iOS apps to mac OS, and Apple expects developers will be able to transition their apps to Mac sometime in 2019. Finally, in the wake of the Cambridge Analytica data scandal, Apple emphasized privacy, with a new Safari feature that preemptively blocks tracking sites like Facebook’s Like and Comment feature and asks you to allow it to appear when you’re browsing a website.

While developers will have access to these new OS iterations shortly, consumers will not until sometime this Fall. Historically, Apple has formally released these platforms shortly after it debuts its new hardware.

Are these updates ho-hum?

Not at all in my opinion. While they could be seen a quieter updates, they bring features and functionality that will spur usage as Apple once again does what it has done in years past – used its software and design expertise to remove friction for consumers. Odds are these features will help spur users of older Apple devices to upgrade later this year, but I continue to see a far larger iPhone upgrade cycle coming once 5G networks go mainstream.

Factor in Apple’s dividend and share repurchase plans, and what some may call boring still looks pretty exciting to me.

  • Following Apple’s WWDC 2018 keynote presentation, we are boosting or price target on Apple (AAPL) shares to $210 from $200.

 

MGM avoids the Las Vegas strike

Last week, I discussed the pending union strike for casino hotel workers on the Las Vegas Strip and how we would be assessing its potential impact for MGM Resorts (MGM). Over the weekend, the company has reportedly reached a new tentative 5-year contract that covers approximately 24,000 workers at 10 casino resorts on the Las Vegas Strip. We’ll continue to monitor the situation and assess any potential impact but, in my view, this tentative agreement is a step in the right direction and could lead to a modest boost to MGM’s properties as its competitors contend with the strike.

  • Our price target on MGM Resorts (MGM) shares remains $39

 

Paccar shares catch an upgrade

Yesterday shares of heavy-duty and medium duty truck company Paccar (PCAR) caught an upgrade to an Outperform rating from Neutral at investment firm Macquarie complete with a $75 target. That upgrade came on the news that May preliminary net orders of heavy trucks (Class 8) in North America were 35,600 units, up 110% year-on-year and up 2.5% vs April.

Despite the swelling order book for heavy and medium duty trucks that reflects the current shortage that is driving freight costs higher, Macquarie is one of the few to turn bullish on Paccar shares. Candidly, given the year over year strength in new truck orders we’re surprised that more haven’t turned positive on the shares.

I’ll look for further confirmation in the soon to be published May Cass Freight Index data. That data for April showed a 10% year over year increase in freight shipments, which in our view served to signal the domestic economy was firming. As more data is had that points to the improving outlook for new truck demand, I expect others will jump on board, boosting their ratings and price targets along the way.

You know what they say when it comes to situations like this – better to be early than late.

  • Our price target on Paccar (PCAR) shares remains $85;

 

Examining a lab grown diamond company as De Beers adjusts its business model

Last week I posted a Thematic Signal that discussed legendary diamond firm De Beers having to pivot its business as it contends with the reality that is our Cash-strapped Consumer investing theme. As I’ve said for some time, these thematic tailwinds and headwinds lead to a change in behavior at consumers and businesses that companies must respond to it they want to survive and thrive. If not, they run the risk of being dead on the vine. If consumers aren’t buying diamonds because they can’t afford them, then the exiting business model at De Beers has to change. Simple. As. That.

In this case De Beers has launched a new line of synthetic diamonds that are a fraction of the price for natural diamonds. Prices for the synthetic diamonds will start at $200 for a quarter carat and increase to $800 for a full carat stone. The company’s natural stones start at roughly 10 times that amount, depending on their clarity and other attributes. We see this move at this price point as part of De Beers’ attempt to capture incremental business associated with our Affordable Luxury investing theme.

With De Beers embracing synthetic diamonds, odds are the flood gates will soon open up with others doing the same. To me, this sounds like a new market opportunity for Charles & Covard (CTHR), the original creator and leading source of Forever One™, Forever Brilliant® and Forever Classic™ moissanite gemstones for fine jewelry. Charles & Covard’s gemstones are based on a patented a thermal growing process for creating pure silicon carbide (SiC) crystals in a controlled laboratory environment that enables lab created grown moissanite gemstones. As the company has positioned its wears, they are free from environmental and ethical issues, and capable of disrupting traditional definitions of fine jewelry.

As background, the global jewelry market is estimated by McKinsey & Company to be $257 billion in size. Like many other industries the move to digital sales is also resulting in a shift in where consumers are buying jewelry. Per McKinsey, by 2020 the global online fashion jewelry market is expected to drive $45 billion in sales, roughly 15% of the global jewelry market, with the global online fine jewelry hitting $30 billion of the global jewelry market. By comparison, estimates put the lab-created gemstone market near $8 billion by 2020 with the largest geographic market being Asia-Pacific followed by North America.

Charles & Covard, which derives more than 90% of its revenue from the domestic market, sells loose moissanite jewels and finished jewelry through two operating segments:

  • Online Channels (38% of sales) which is comprised of the company’s charlesandcolvard.com website, e-commerce outlets, including marketplaces such as Amazon (AMZN) and eBay (EBAY), and drop-ship customers, such as Overstock.com (OSTK), and other pure-play, exclusively e-commerce customers, such as Gemvara;
  • Traditional segment (62% of revenue), which consists of wholesale, retail, and television customers such as Helzberg Diamonds, Rio Grande, Stuller, and Boscov’s.

Only one analyst formally covers CTHR shares with a $2.50 price target, but there are no consensus expectations for EPS let alone revenue. Revenue for Charles & Covard has remained in the $25-$29 million bandwith over the last five years, and annualizing the company’s March quarter results suggests revenue near $27 million this year with EPS of roughly -$0.12.

There is some issue with that, which centers on the inherent seasonality within the company’s business that reflects the year-end holidays and gift giving. Odds are that means the company’s top and bottom line could be ahead of those figures.

Now here is where it gets a little cloudy. While forecasts suggest there are robust growth prospects ahead for laboratory created diamonds and other jewels, which could equate to a significant tipping point for Charles & Covard should reality match those forecasts, the company is facing a potential supplier issue.

Its sole supplier of SiC crystals is Cree (CREE) and Charles & Covard has a certain exclusive supply rights for SiC crystals to be used for gemstone applications. In December 2014, Charles & Covard entered into a new exclusive supply agreement with Cree that will expire on June 24, 2018, unless extended by the parties for an additional two-year period.

While the two companies boast being on good terms, the reality is Cree is a captive supplier that Charles & Covard rely on to for their products. This means watching the next few weeks for the deal terms for either a new supply agreement or ones attached to the extension as they could alter profitability expectations. Other complications include the company’s microcap status and its average daily trading volume of just 70,750 shares.

For those reasons, even though the lab grown diamond market looks to have favorable growth prospects, we’re going to keep an eye on Charles & Covard shares by putting them on the Tematica Investing Contender List.

  • We are adding shares of Charles & Covard (CTHR) to the Tematica Investing Contender List as part of our Affordable Luxury investing theme.
SPECIAL ALERT: Calling this Disruptive Technology Company back up to the Select List

SPECIAL ALERT: Calling this Disruptive Technology Company back up to the Select List

 

  • We are issuing a Buy on shares of Universal Display (OLED), a Disruptive Technology company, with a $175 price target.

This morning I am calling shares of Universal Display (OLED) back up to the Tematica Investing Select List on reports from South Korea’s ETNews that Apple (AAPL) intends to fully transition its iPhone line up to organic light emitting diode displays with its 2019 models. As the organic light emitting diode  industry continues to ramp capacity in order to meet full demand by Apple and others, I expect to see pricing become more favorable for Apple and others, which should help restrain iPhone price creep in 2019 and beyond. As a reminder, the price of the iPhone X is one of the most cited reasons for its high price point, with one of the key reasons for that price tag being the cost of the organic light emitting diode display that is currently sole sources from Samsung.

As a reminder, Tematica’s Disruptive Technology investment theme focuses on companies that upend existing business models as new technologies come to market. I see Universal Display and its organic light emitting diode technology doing just that to the display industry and eventually the lighting industry as well, just the way light emitting diode displays did. These disruptions can take time and are often filled with setbacks that punish stock prices, much like we have seen with OLED shares over the last several months. As those setbacks fade, however, the adoption resumes and the Apple news suggests that is about to happen for organic light emitting diode displays, a major positive for OLED shares.

Being cautious as OLED shares may get ahead of themselves in the near-term

I expect OLED shares to jump on this news, perhaps even get a tad ahead of themselves in the near-term, but I will keep in mind the ramp for Apple’s 2019 iPhone models will begin in earnest in roughly 12 months from now. During that time, I expect current industry capacity issues to be digested and additional capacity added, which will also be a positive for the display equipment business at our Applied Materials (AMAT) shares.

I point this out because it’s still widely expected that Apple will introduce three new iPhone models this year with some combination of organic light emitting diode and liquid crystal displays (LCDs). Some reports suggest Apple has scaled back volume expectations for iPhone models with organic light emitting diode displays this year in favor of lower cost LCD ones, likely to help it regain share with more affordable models.  In my view, the push-pull between the lineup display choices between this year and 2019 likely reflects a combination of sufficient organic light emitting diode capacity for Apple’s full iPhone lineup and near-term pricing for the displays.

What this means is there are likely to be fits and starts for Universal Display along the way as other smartphone and device manufacturers incrementally chew up existing industry ahead of the 2019 Apple ramp. Should this pan out, it will give us the opportunity to scale into this OLED position, potentially at better prices.

In terms of sign posts I’ll be watching over the coming quarters, organic light emitting diode industry capacity utilization data, new order metrics from Applied and smartphone display choices by other top competitors such as Samsung, Huawei and others.

A conservative price target… for now

With the add back of OLED shares, I am instilling a price target of $175, but as we did before I will continue to monitor the speed of organic light emitting diode adoption and adjust that target accordingly in the coming months.

While some may ask questions over that 51x price to earnings multiple on currently expected 2019 EPS of $3.42 per share I offer two thoughts. First, as the Apple ramp unfolds, odds are 2019 EPS expectations will move higher. Second, even if those 2019 expectations don’t move higher, which is unlikely, OLED shares are currently trading at a price to earnings growth (PEG) ratio of 0.35 based on the compound annual earnings growth rate of 82% over the 2015-2019 period. My $175 target equates to a PEG ratio of 0.6 on current 2019 EPS expectations. In my view, the Apple news is the catalyst that will move shares higher, but it will take the expected ramp becoming a reality that will push the shares closer to a PEG ratio of 1.0 over the coming several quarters.

  • We are issuing a Buy on shares of Universal Display (OLED), a Disruptive Technology company, with a $175 price target.

 

Fortnite is the harbinger of more pain for the already struggling toy industry

While it is rather clear to us why Toys R Us is filing bankruptcy and even Star Wars themed toy sales weren’t enough to help Mattel (MAT) this past holiday season, in-app purchases for the new iOS version of Fortnite are rather revealing. The recently launched gaming app, which sits at the center of our Connected Society and Content is King investing themes, typifies the shift toward gaming, and mobile gaming, in particular, that has changed the kinds of toys that children of all ages play with.

At Tematica we like to say confirming data points for our investment themes are all around us in everyday life. In this case, all one has to do is look at the kinds of “toys” being used by children, tweens and teens as well as some adult – smartphones and in some cases tablets to play games, read or even stream movies and TVs. With a nearly endless choice of games, books and video content, one has to wonder how long traditional toys, such as action figures and dolls, can survive? Perhaps they will in a limited form that powers licensable content to gaming and content producers much the way the struggling comic industry is being utilized at the movie box office.

That would mean companies like Mattel and Hasbro (HAS) understand what it takes to pivot and capture the benefits of our Asset-lite Business Model investing theme.

 

Though it launched on iOS as a limited “early release” last Thursday, Epic Games’ Fortnite is already sitting atop the App Store’s free app download charts and, according to fresh estimates from Sensor Tower, has grossed more than $1.5 million in worldwide in-app purchases.

Players spend real money to buy V-Bucks, which can be redeemed for skins, accessory modifications, character animations and more. Currently, V-Buck packs range from $9.99 for 1,000 currency units to $99.99 for 10,000 units. Larger purchases net additional in-game currency, for example the $99.99 tier comes with an extra 3,500 V-Bucks on top of the standard 10,000 units.

According to the report, $1 million of Epic’s total estimated earnings came in the first three days after in-app purchases were activated. The performance puts Fortnite well ahead of similar battle royale style games Knives Out and Rules of Survival, which earned approximately $57,000 and $39,000, respectively, when they debuted.

A separate report from Apptopia adds color to Epic’s release, noting the game now sits in the No. 1 overall App Store spot in 89 markets. Currently the second-highest grossing game in the U.S. behind App Store stalwart Candy Crush Saga, Fortnite appears in the top-ten highest grossing charts in 15 markets, the analytics firm says.

 

Source: Fortnite estimated to have grossed $1.5M in in-app purchases after 4 days on iOS App Store

With more earnings on the way, getting ready for a shortened week for stocks

With more earnings on the way, getting ready for a shortened week for stocks

Today is all quiet when it comes to the domestic stock market as they are closed in observance of President’s Day. While never one to dismiss a long weekend, it does mean having a shorter trading week ahead of us. From time to time, that can mean a frenetic pace depending of the mixture and velocity of data to be had. This week, there are less than a handful of key economic indicators coming at us including the January Existing Home Sales report and one for Leading Indicators.

Midweek, we’ll get the report that I suspect will be the focus for most investors this week – the monthly Flash PMI reports for China, Europe and the U.S. from Markit Economics. These will not only provide details to gauge the velocity of the economy in February, but also offer the latest view on input prices and inflation. Given the inflation focus that was had between the January Employment Report and the January CPI report, this new data will likely be a  keen focus for inflation hawks and other investors. I expect we here at Tematica will have some observations and musings to share as we digest those Flash PMI reports.

On the earnings front, if you were hoping for a change of pace after the last two weeks, we’re sorry to break the news that more than 550 companies will be reporting next week. As one might expect there will be a number of key reports from the likes of Home Depot (HD) and Walmart (WMT).  For the Tematica Investing Select List, we’ll get results from four holdings:

 

MGM Resorts (MGM) on Tuesday (Feb. 20)

When this gaming and hospitality company reports its quarterly results, let’s remember the Las Vegas shooting that had a negative impact on overall industry Las Vegas gaming activity early in the December quarter. In amassing the monthly industry gaming data, while gaming revenue rebounded as the seasonally slow quarter progressed, for the three months in full it fell 5% year over year. Offsetting that, overall industry gaming revenue for the December quarter rose 20% year over year in Macau.

Putting these factors together and balancing them for MGM’s revenue mix, we’ve seen EPS and revenue expectations move to the now current $0.08 and $2.5 billion vs. $0.11 and $2.46 billion in the year ago quarter. On MGM’s earnings call, we’ll be looking to see if corporate spending is ramping down as had been predicted as well as what the early data has to say about the new Macau casino. We’ll also get insight on the potential direct and indirect benefits of tax reform for MGM’s bottom line.

  • Heading into that report our price target for MGM shares remains $37.

 

Universal Display (OLED) on Thursday (Feb. 22).

After several painful weeks, shares of Universal Display rebounded meaningfully last week following the news it re-signed Samsung to a multi-year licensing deal and an upbeat outlook from Applied Materials (AMAT)for the organic light-emitting display market. For subscribers who have been on the sidelines for this position, with the Apple (AAPL) iPhone X production news now baked in the cake we see this as the time to get into the shares. We expect an upbeat earnings report to be had relative to the December quarter consensus forecast for EPS of $0.85 on revenue of $100 million, up 55% and 34%, respectively, year over year.

Based on what we’ve heard from Applied as well as developments over organic light emitting diode TVs and other devices at CES 2018, we also expect Universal will offer a positive outlook for the current as well as coming quarters.

  • Our price target on OLED shares remains $225.

 

 

Earnings from Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and UPS lead to several price target changes… and not all of them are moving higher

Earnings from Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and UPS lead to several price target changes… and not all of them are moving higher

 

In the last 24 hours we’ve had four Tematica Investing Select List positions – United Parcel Service (UPS) Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Apple (AAPL) – report their quarterly earnings. Across the four companies, it was a mixed bag — on one hand, we have solid performance and profits at Amazon and Apple, while on the other hand, both United Parcel Service and Alphabet lagged in converting their respective topline strength into profits. We’re going to dig into company specifics below, but in summary:

  • We are increasing our long-term price target on Amazon shares to $1,750 from $1,400, which keeps our Buy rating on the shares in place. As a quick reminder, we continue to see Amazon as a company to own not trade
  • We are maintaining our $200 price target on Apple, which also keeps our Buy rating intact.
  • With Alphabet shares, we are now boosting our price target to $1,300 from $1,150, which offers upside of 15% from current levels. Subscribers that are underweight GOOGL shares are advised to let the full impact of last night’s earnings announcement be had and wade into the shares in the coming days.
  • We are trimming our United Parcel Service price target to $130 from $132.

 

United Parcel Service

Shares of United Parcel Service slumped throughout the early part of the day yesterday, and while they did recover off their lows, the day ended with the shares down just over 6% following the company’s December quarter earnings report. Inside that report, the company reported slightly better than expected top-line results of $18.83 billion, up 11.2% year over year, vs. the expected $18.2 billion. The issue that pressured UPS shares was revealed in the 2.5% year over year increase in EPS to $1.67 even though that figure was slightly ahead of expectations. Comparing those two growth rates as well as looking at the year over year drop in operating margin for the quarter to 12.2% from 13.1%, we find UPS’s network capacity was once again overwhelmed by the shift to digital shopping in the US. Outside of that business, its profits climbed at its International business as well as Supply Chain and Freight Segment.

Near-term following the year-end holiday shopping season we are entering the seasonally slower part of the year for UPS’s business. If historical patterns repeat, we’re likely to see the shares range-bound over the coming months with them trending higher as more data shows the continued shift toward digital shopping that is powering its UPS Ground business. With more pronounced share gains likely to reveal themselves in the shopping-heavy back half of the year, we’re inclined to be patient investors with UPS, reaping the rewards as more companies continue to embrace the direct-to-consumer business model either on their own or through partnerships with other companies, like Amazon. We will continue to monitor oil and at the pump gas prices, which could be a headwind to UPS’s efforts to improve margins at its US Domestic business in the coming months. In terms of the company’s 2018 outlook, it guided EPS between $7.03-$7.37 billion, a 20% increase year over year at the midpoint, which is in line with expectations.

 

Apple

After the market close yesterday, Apple reported December quarter results that bested Wall Street expectations on the top and bottom line even though iPhone shipments fell short of expectations and dipped year over year. More specifically, the company served up EPS of $3.89 per share, $0.04 ahead of consensus expectation on revenue of $88.29 billion, which edged out expectations of $87.6 billion. While Apple once again bested expectations, the truly revealing revenue and EPS comparisons are had versus the December 2016 quarter as revenue rose 12.6% year over and EPS 16%.

Year over year revenue improvement was had in the iPad and Services business — the latter benefitting from Apple’s continued growth in active devices, which hit 1.3 billion in January, up from 1.0 billion just two years ago. Mac sales, in terms of revenue and units, edged lower year over year and Apple Watch volumes rose 50% year over year on the strength of Apple Watch 3.  Despite the 1.2% year over year drop in iPhone shipments, the higher priced newer models drove the average selling price in the December 2017 quarter to hit roughly $795 up from $695 in the year ago quarter. That pricing surge led iPhone revenue to climb 12.5% to $61.6 billion. Digging into the results, we find the year over year improvements even more impressive when we consider iPhone X didn’t go on sale until early November and the December 2017 quarter had one less week compared to the December 2016 one.

All in all, it was a solid December quarter for Apple, and as we all know, there has been much speculation over iPhone production levels in the first half of the year, particularly for iPhone X. While Apple did issue its take on the March quarter – revenue between $60-$62 billion (vs. $52.9 billion in the March 2017 quarter), gross margin between 38%-38.5% and operating expenses $7.6-$7.7 billion – it was its usual tight-lipped self when it came to device shipments.

Let’s remember chatter over the last few weeks was calling for steep cuts to iPhone X shipments, but Apple ended the December quarter with channel inventories near the lower end of its 5-7-week target range. On the earnings call, Apple shared that iPhone should be up double digits year over year in the March 2018 quarter with the non-iPhone businesses up double digits as well. If we assume iPhone average selling prices remain relatively flat quarter over quarter, back of the envelope math suggests Apple is likely to ship 48-49 million iPhone units – roughly a 3%-5% drop in shipments year over year. That is far less than the talking heads were talking about over the last few weeks and explains why Apple shares rallied in aftermarket trading.

We see this as a positive for our Universal Display (OLED) shares as well – our price target on those remains $225.

From our perspective, the Apple story remains very much intact and with several positives to be had in the coming quarters. When Apple reports its March quarter results, we expect a clearer picture of how Apple plans to leverage the benefits of tax reform on its capital structure and share potential dividend and buyback plans. Next week, Apple’s HomePod will be released and before too long we expect to hear more about iPad and other product refreshes before the talk turns to WWDC 2018. Along the way, we hope to hear more concrete plans over Apple’s push into original content, a move we continue to think will make its ecosystem even stickier and likely result in even more people switching to Apple devices.

  • Our price target on Apple (AAPL) shares remains $200.

 

Amazon

Turning to Amazon, we were expecting a strong quarter given all the data points we received over the accelerated shift to digital shopping during the 2017 holiday season and we were not disappointed. For the December quarter, Amazon’s net sales increased 38% to $60.5 billion. Excluding the $1.1 billion favorable impact from year-over-year changes in foreign exchange rates, the quarter’s net sales still increased a robust increased 36% year over year. By reporting segments, North America revenues rose an impressive 42% year over year, International by 29% and Amazon Web Services (AWS) just under 45%.

More impressive than the segment revenue results was the year over year move in operating income in North America, which rose 107% for the quarter, and the increase in sales in AWS (Amazon’s cloud computing division), with sales increasing 46% for the quarter. That led the company’s overall operating income to climb to $2.1 billion in the quarter, up significantly from $1.3 billion in December 2016 quarter. In our view, after delivering 11 quarters of profitability, Amazon has shown the naysayers that it can prudently invest to drive profitable growth and innovation. Period.

The seasonally strong shopping quarter resulted in Amazon’s North America division being the largest generator of profit for the quarter, a role that is usually had by AWS. Looking at the profit picture for the full year 2017, we find AWS generated nearly all of the company’s operating profit. We continue to be impressed by Amazon’s ability to win not just profitable cloud market share but fend off margin erosion as players like Alphabet and Microsoft (MSFT) look to win share in this market.

If we had to find one issue to pick with Amazon’s December quarter report it would be the continued losses at its International business. Those losses tallied $0.9 billion in the December 2017 quarter and $3.06 billion for all of 2017.  We understand Amazon continues to expand its footprint in Europe and Asia, replicating the Prime and content investments it has made in the US, to drive long-term growth. As we have said before, Amazon is leveraging its secret weapon, AWS (10% of 2017 sales but more than 100% of 2017 operating profits), and its cash flow to fund these long-term investments and as patient investors, we accept that. We would, however, like to have a better understanding what the timetable is for bringing the International business up to at least to break even so it’s no longer a drag on the company’s bottom line.

In typical Amazon fashion, Amazon’s earnings press release contained a plethora of highlights across its various businesses, but the few that jumped out at us were:

  • In 2017, more than five billion items shipped with Prime worldwide.
  • More new paid members joined Prime in 2017 than any previous year — both worldwide and in the U.S.
  • Amazon Web Services (AWS) announced several enterprise customers during the quarter: Expedia, Ellucian, and DigitalGlobe are going all-in on AWS; The Walt Disney Company and Turner named AWS their preferred public cloud provider; Symantec will leverage AWS as its strategic infrastructure provider for the vast majority of its cloud workloads; Expedia, Intuit, the National Football League (NFL), Capital One, DigitalGlobe, and Cerner announced they’ve chosen AWS for machine learning and artificial intelligence; and Bristol-Myers Squibb, Honeywell, Experian, FICO, Insitu, LexisNexis, Sysco, Discovery Communications, Dow Jones, and Ubisoft kicked off major new moves to AWS
  • AWS continues to accelerate its pace of innovation with the release of 497 significant new services and features in the fourth quarter, bringing the total number of launches in 2017 to 1,430.

 

Those are but a few of the three-plus pages of highlights contained in the December quarter’s earnings press release. These and others show Amazon continues to expand its reach, laying the groundwork for further profitable growth in the coming quarters.

In characteristic fashion, Amazon issued revenue guidance for the current quarter that was in line with expectations – $47.75 – $48.7 billion – that equates to year over year growth between 34%-42%. Per usual, the company also issued it “you could drive a truck through it” operating income forecast calling for $0.3-$1.0 billion for the quarter.

  • We are boosting our price target on Amazon (AMZN) shares to $1,750 from $1,400 and we continue to view them as ones to own for the long-term as the company continues to disrupt the retail industry and is poised to make inroads into others.

 

Alphabet/Google

Rounding out yesterday’s earnings blitzkrieg, was Alphabet, which delivered yet another 20% plus increase in revenue for the December quarter. The performance bested Wall Street expectations, but the company’s bottom line disappointed and missed the consensus by $0.37 per share.

For the record, Alphabet reported December quarter EPS of $9.70 vs. the expected $10.07 on revenue of $32.32 billion. At 85% of overall revenue for the quarter, advertising remains the core focus of revenue. Year over year in the quarter, the company’s advertising revenue rose 22% with growth compared to the year ago quarter also had at its Network Members’ properties and other revenue segments.

The difference between the company’s top line beat and bottom line miss can be traced primarily to its Traffic Acquisition Costs (TAC) — the fees it pays to partner websites that run Google ads or services. Those fees climbed 33% year over year to resemble 24% of advertising revenue vs. 22% in the December 2016 quarter. The continued rise in TAC reflects the ongoing shift in the company’s mix toward mobile, which makes the increase not a surprising one as mobile search and content consumption continues to grow faster than desktop.

On a positive note, the company prudently managed operating expenses, which accounted for 26.6% of revenue in the quarter down from 27% a year ago. The net effect led Alphabet’s overall operating margin for the quarter to slip to 24% from 25% in the December 2016 quarter.

Outside of the core advertising business, the company continues to make progress on its other initiatives better known as Google Other, which includes cloud, its Pixel phones and Google Play. On the earnings call, the management team called out that Google Cloud has surpassed $1 billion, a notable achievement but to be fair the company lags considerably behind Amazon in the space. That said, ongoing cloud adoption leaves ample room for future growth in the coming quarters.

Turning to the company’s Other Bets segment, which houses its autonomous vehicle business Waymo, Google Fiber, home security and automation business Nest and its Verily life sciences business units, it continues to be a drag on overall profits given the operating loss of $916 million on revenue of $409 million. The positive to be had is the unit’s revenue climbed 56% year over year and size of the operating drag compressed 16% vs. the year-ago quarter and was less than $940 million it was Wall Street expected it to be. We see that as progress given the less than mature nature of the businesses housed in Other Bets. As they mature further, we expect them to be less of a drag on overall profits with several of them potentially adding to the valuation argument to be had for the shares as they become a more meaningful piece of the overall revenue mix.

On the housekeeping front, the company’s Board authorized the repurchase up to an additional $8.6 billion of its Class C capital stock. With more than $101 billion on the balance sheet in cash and equivalents exiting 2017 the company has ample funds to opportunistically repurchase shares.

  • The net impact of Alphabet’s bottom line miss looks to have the shares open lower this morning, which when paired with our new $1,300 price target (up from $1,150) offers some 15% upside to be had. That along with our view the company’s search and advertising businesses make it a core holding even as it grapples with the transition to mobile from desktop.

 

Corning beats, but smartphone comments will be the near-term guide for the shares

Corning beats, but smartphone comments will be the near-term guide for the shares

 

Amid a falling stock market open this Tuesday morning, which comes on the heels of a Monday that was the worst day thus far for stocks in 2018, Disruptive Technology company Corning (GLW) reported better than expected December quarter earnings, beating on both the top and bottom lines. The sparse release from the company showed positive results across the majority of its business and hinted at expectations for the company’s top line to rise 5% this year. All in all, a solid report ahead of the company’s 8:30 AM ET conference call, which should shed far more details on its quarterly results and outlook. It’s that more granular view, especially for the smartphone market, that will determine how GLW shares will trade later today as well as those for Apple (AAPL) and Universal Display (OLED).

Piecing some comments together from its earnings press release, it appears Corning’s Display Technologies business (31% of sales) will continue to benefit from larger screen sizes and better LCD glass pricing, while Optical Communications (34% of sales) is expected to grow 10% year over year due in part to a contract with Verizon (VZ) as well as ongoing backhaul demand. That year over year improvement at the Optical Communications segment is forecasted without any benefit to be had from the recently acquired 3M Communications Market Division. Two of the company’s other segments – Life Sciences and Environmental Technologies – are slated to deliver positive sales gains, but there is some rather cryptic wording for the company’s Specialty Materials business (14% of sales)

As I noted above, Corning is holding its December quarter earnings conference call this morning and we expect the dialog to be had to provide far more details on management’s expectations as well as the dynamics, such as smartphone shipment expectations for the first half of 2018, that will impact product mix and profits. Current consensus expectations have the company delivering EPS near $1.80. Because the company’s Display Technologies business accounted for 46% of earnings in the December quarter and 47% in all of 2017, we expect Wall Street to pepper the company with questions surrounding iPhone production levels in the coming quarters. Those answers will determine the likelihood of those 2018 EPS forecasts that fall between $1.64 – $1.98 per share. Quite a wide berth, and the answers will determine if there is upside to our $37 price target.

I have shared there is much speculation over iPhone X production levels to be had, but we would remind subscribers the iPhone X is just one of Apple’s smartphone models. That said, given the rapid rise in the overall stock market year-to-date, up 6.7%-8.2% across the major market indices after yesterdays’ performance, and the 7% increase in GLW shares over the same time frame, Corning’s smartphone commentary could weigh on the shares if it indicates an overall weaker than expected smartphone market. It will also help chart the near-term direction for the Apple and Universal Display shares on the Tematica Investing Select List.

From my perspective, we are hearing reports of larger format smartphones from Apple and others hitting shelves later this year. Paired with the growing adoption of larger format organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays on both smartphones and TVs, as well as burgeoning demand for backhaul technologies that should grow in the coming quarters as 5G networks are built, we’ll use any pullback to be had in GLW shares in the near-term to improve our long-term position.

 

 

OLED: This technology will be a marathon, not a sprint

OLED: This technology will be a marathon, not a sprint

Shares of organic light-emitting diodes display chemical and intellectual property company Universal Display (OLED) have been hard hit this past week, falling more than 17% through last night’s market close from a high of $208 per share back on January 18, 2018. While a drop such as this can be hard to swallow, maintaining context and perspective is always important and the reality is the shares have simply retraced back to their mid-December level. Clearly, OLED shares were a strong performer closing out 2017 and the first few weeks of 2018 as data showed robust iPhone X sales in the December quarter.

The recent drop in OLED shares, however, reflects growing chatter across Wall Street over lower iPhone X shipments to be had in the coming quarters. While we are less than thrilled with the pullback in OLED shares, we also recognize that suppliers, direct or indirect, that live by the Apple, can be hit by the Apple. It’s also quite true that the late December-early January move pushed OLED shares into over bought territory.

Here’s the thing, while many are focusing on Apple as the main thesis behind the push in Universal Display share price, the reality is we are still in the early innings of organic light emitting diode display adoption. Other devices and applications — TVs, smartphones other connected devices interior automotive lighting, and eventually general illumination — are still just beginning to incorporate this Disruptive Technology. Rather than focus on quarter to quarter moves by a well-known adopter, we will continue to play the long-game when it comes to organic light emitting diode display adoption and in turn, OLED shares.

For subscribers that have missed the run in OLED shares thus far, I suggest holding off adding the shares until Apple reports its December quarter results on Feb. 1 so any and all bad news to be had is priced into the shares. If the group think on iPhone X shipments is right, it will offer a great long-term entry point for OLED shares.

  • Our long-term price target ahead of any tax reform benefit to be had remains $225.
Apple: Don’t listen to the short-term chatter

Apple: Don’t listen to the short-term chatter

 

Over the last few days there has been a slew of headlines for Tematica Investing Select List holding Apple (AAPL), one of the core companies behind our Connected Society investing theme. There has been an upgrade of the shares as well as a downgrade, respectively, by investment firms Maxim and Longbow Research. That’s not the only push/pull that we’ve seen in the share price. The other has been favorable data vs. the historical seasonal downtick in smartphone volumes as we move from the December quarter into the March one.

The favorable data came in the form of the latest CIRP numbers, which indicate Apple increased its U.S. iPhone activations ten points in the final quarter of 2017, from a 29% share in the September quarter to 39% by December. More significantly, new phone activations were up five points year over year, from 34% in Q4 2016 to 39% in the same quarter last year.

Part of the downgrade at Longbow, which lowered its rating to Neutral from Buy, likely stems from the seasonal slowdown in smartphone sales we are once again hearing about from component suppliers. Given the magnitude of the iPhone on Apple’s overall business, it’s not surprising that this is once again coming into focus. Apple has previously warned that investors should avoid reading too much into supply chain speculation because of its size and complexity. With Apple having launched three new flagship products in 2017, including the higher-priced and higher-margin iPhone X, we’re not going to overthink this but we will be paying attention.

Apple is set to report its December quarter earnings on Feb. 1, which will give us all the key metrics for the quarter. Odds are Apple will offer some vague guidance on smartphone volumes, and the earnings conference call will likely be littered with folks trying to get Apple CEO Tim Cook and others to spill something. But Apple has been doing this a long time, and they are well rehearsed in not answering questions they don’t want to.

This means zeroing in on what is said by key suppliers in the Apple ecosystems both ahead of Apple’s reporting date and after. The day before Apple’s earnings, Qualcomm (QCOM) will issues it results. Soon after, we’ll hear from RF chip company Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) and chip company Cirrus Logic (CRUS), which focuses on audio and voice signal applications and reports on Feb. 5. Another company I’ll be listening to is Broadcom (AVGO), which supplies a variety of connectivity chips including Bluetooth and WiFi to the smartphone markets as well as others.

As we look to put these iPhone outlook puzzle pieces together, there are other moves afoot at Apple. Yesterday, as part of its tax repatriation moves, the company announced that over the next five years it expects to contribute $350 billion to the US economy, create 20,000 jobs in the process, and bump up its Advanced Manufacturing Fund to $5 billion from $1 billion. The stock market greeted that news with open arms as Apple shares moved higher. The real move to be had, however, will be when Apple shares its view on how tax reform will impact its 2018 EPS. Current estimates call for the company to earn $11.46 per share this fiscal year, up from $9.21 last year. We’re also be listening to see if Apple ups its quarterly dividend of $0.63 per share or authorizes another share repurchase program.

Understandably, that news took over the headlines, but there was other news to be had. According to a new report from Variety, following the pull out by HBO, Apple will take over the lease at a new Culver City, California 128,000-square-foot development. This adds to Apple’s Los Angeles area footprint in a meaningful way, seeing that Culver City is also the location where Beats is headquartered. The widespread belief is this will be the space where Apple houses its original content efforts. After sitting on the sidelines for a number of years, Apple is slowly dipping its toe into the content creation waters, moving past that silly Carpool Karaoke show with pending programs with Reese Witherspoon and Jennifer Aniston, Nichelle Tramble Spellman’s “Are You Sleeping,” and a 10-episode comedy sketch show starring Kristen Wiig.

Despite its reputation, Apple tends not to be a first mover, but rather one that makes its move at the tipping point of a technology or consumer behavior. We’ve seen this time and time again with new technologies and the iPhone, and we suspect we are seeing this with its push into original content. Given Apple’s array of connected devices and changing demands from viewers that increasingly opt to stream the content they want, when they want it, on the device they want it on without having to buy it, the direction makes perfect sense. From our perspective, here at Tematica, it was only a matter of time for Apple to make this move as it looks to follow the example set by Netflix – leverage original content to lure subscribers — to make its devices even stickier with consumers. Hopefully, Apple will have a stronger starting lineup than Amazon (AMZN) has with its original Prime Video offering.

Finally, it appears that we will soon see Apple’s virtual assistant in a smart speaker, better known as HomePod, hitting shelves. Reportedly, Apple supplier Inventec has started shipping the device, and expectations are that between Inventec and Hon-Hai Precison Industry, the other HomePod supplier, Apple will ship 10-12 million units in 2018. Much like other new non-iPhone products, including the Apple Watch, the HomePod probably won’t have a significant impact on Apple’s revenue and earnings during its first year, but it does help shore up Apple’s efforts in the Connected Home alongside Apple TV at a time when Amazon and Alphabet/Google are making inroads.

And here’s a wild thought, given all the digital assets at Apple’s disposal and its growing presence in the payments industry, how long until we hear rumors of an “AppleCoin”?

The bottom line on Apple is we continue to see the company as a core holding of our Connected Society and Cashless Consumption investing themes, and the added tailwind of our Content is King investing theme could improve its position in our increasingly digital lifestyle.

  • Our price target on Apple shares remains $200, and we are inclined to be buyers on weakness following the company’s December quarter earnings report on Feb. 1