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It’s 11am, do you know where your car is? If not the stock we’re adding this week probably does

It’s 11am, do you know where your car is? If not the stock we’re adding this week probably does

Last week, as the latest issue of Tematica Investing was being delivered to you, I was literally being wheeled into the operating room for knee surgery. It was nothing too major, just the repair of a small meniscus tear I suffered on the basketball court. Fortunately for you (and for the performance of the Tematica Select List) the issue was completed early that morning — well in advance of that surgery — as I was pretty loopy afterwards!

A week later, things are feeling pretty good, but I am looking forward to getting the stitches out so I can get back in the pool and get some relief from the extra humid conditions here in DC this week!

 

In this week’s Tematica Investing:

 

  • We’re placing shares of CalAmp Corp. (CAMP) on the Tematica Select List as part of our Connected Society investing theme with a Buy rating and a $21 price target. We would be comfortable adding the shares up to $17.50, at which point we see upside of 20% vs. the current 35% upside to be had at the last night’s closing share price. Read More >>
  • Updates on Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Physicians Realty Trust (DOC), Nike (NKE) and Under Armour (UA). Read More >>
  • We also dig into where we are with our position in The Walt Disney Co. (DIS) after their earnings announcement last night. Hint, we need to have the same patience as a the line at Space Mountain. Read More >>
  • Check your accounts! Dividend payments have been made over the last few days from Starbucks (SBUX) an PetMeds Express (PETS). Read More >>

You can click below to download the full report.
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Adding a splash of color to Rise & Fall of Middle Class

Adding a splash of color to Rise & Fall of Middle Class

Welcome to another weekly issue of the Weekly Tematica Investing. It’s been a wild week of market moves, earnings reports and economic data all at once.

In addition to my regular visits with the Charles Payne on his Making Money with Charles Payne show on Fox Business, I had an opportunity to sit down with the folks at Boom-Bust on RT (the new home of The Larry King Show) to dig deep into our thematic-driven approach and discuss why most investors are investing wrong. That of course is NOT the case with us!

You can click on the image below to watch the whole interview.

In this week’s Tematica Investing:

  • Closing the books on July, the Tematica Select List had a number of positions that handily outperformed the S&P 500, which rose 3.6% for the month. Read More >>
  • We are issuing a Buy rating paint and coatings company Sherwin Williams (SHW) with a $350 price target as we add a splash of color to our Rise & Fall of the Middle Class investing theme. This is a new position and we are holding off with a protective stop loss for now. Read More >>
  • Updates, Updates, Updates – Recapping earnings from Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), PetMeds Express (PETS) and Under Armour (UA). Read More >>
  • Housekeeping! – Here’s what we’re watching when Physicians Realty Trust (DOC) and Walt Disney (DIS) report quarterly earnings. Read More >>

You can click below to download the full report.
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☀ During this summer heatwave, what better move to make than this?

☀ During this summer heatwave, what better move to make than this?

Dog in front of fanHere at Tematica Research, just outside of Washington, DC, we are “enjoying” a good old fashion summer heatwave. The hottest summer in four years, yesterday marked the 6th straight day of highs at or above 90 degrees.

Now for those in the Midwest and Southwest, you’re probably thinking, that’s nothing!

The magic we have here in DC to throw into the mix of steamy temperatures is the fact that the city is built on what was once swamp land, and with that comes humidity — lots of it! So temps in the 90’s can easily climb up into the 105 degree heat index range, and with that comes that little bead of sweat that starts on the back of your neck, rolls down between your shoulder blades, further down to your lower back and then . . . well, you know where that story is going.

All of this reminds us of what put athletic apparel manufacturer Under Armour (UA) on the map — moisture-wicking synthetic fabric. The company that started in the basement of CEO Kevin Plank’s grandmother in 1996, has grown into a nearly $4 billion company that specializes in making sure all that sweat we humans produce is evaporated away rather than ending up where the sun don’t shine.

The heatwave across much of the country allows for this cheeky opening narrative to this story. The real reason we’re talking about Under Armour now is, given the pull-back in shares after the company’s 2nd quarter earnings announcement, we’re using the opportunity to make a move and add them to the Tematica Select List.

In this week’s Tematica Investing:

  • We are adding Under Armour (UA) shares to the Tematica Select List as part of our Rise & Fall investing theme, with a $55 price target. There is no recommended protective stop loss at this time.
  • Given the robust movie slate for 2H 2016, we are keeping Content is King Regal Entertainment (RGC) shares on the Tematica Select List, despite a modest $0.01 per share earnings miss for the June quarter.
  • We have earnings from Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) later this week, and we preview what’s expected and what we’ll be looking for in those reports.
  • Starbucks is added to Goldman’s Conviction List, more confirmation for our position in the coffee giant.
  • AT&T (T) loses the Yahoo! (YHOO) bid to Verizon (VZ), and we are rather happy with that.

You can click below to download the full report.

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Remaining loyal to our disciplined and thematic approach

Remaining loyal to our disciplined and thematic approach

The market move has turned more bearish of late, and we are not surprised Wall Street has adopted the more cautious stance we’ve had these last several weeks. A headline freak out on the April CPI report shows us just how nervous the stock market is these days. We’ll continue to be disciplined when contemplating adding each new position to the Tematica Select List.

In this week’s edition of Tematica Investing:

  • Just doing it with Nike shares. We are issuing a BUY on Nike (NKE) shares with a price target of $66. Because this is an initial recommendation we are holding off with a commensurate stop loss, as we intend to build this position size over time. We would be buyers of Nike up to $59. Read More >>
  • Remaining patient with Costco Wholesale (COST) shares
  • Adding share of EPR Properties (EPR), a Content is King company to the Tematica Contender List. Read More >>
  • Quick Updates on AT&T (T), PetMeds Express (PETS), Regal Entertainment Group (RGC) and Disney (DIS). Read More >>
  • This week’s Ask Tematica focuses on choosing between two different share classes.
  • As promised Thematic Signals returns this week, and there is no shortage of confirming data points for our thematic investing themes. Read More >>

Click the link below to download the full report

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Brexit Vote, the Fed, Slowing Growth, Trump and Clinton . . . Oh My Says the Stock Market!

Brexit Vote, the Fed, Slowing Growth, Trump and Clinton . . . Oh My Says the Stock Market!

Currently, we are dealing with a market that is seesawing around as it attempts to come to grips with slowing growth expectations, even though oil prices have continued to inch higher. But even more uncertainty is on the horizon. Looking ahead, there are a growing number of unknowns in the market, ranging from:

  • The Brexit vote
  • Prospects of the Fed boosting rates in June
  • Aggressive growth expectations in the back half of 2016
  • And the chaos of the 2016 presidential election

Taken alone, any one of these uncertainties is enough to jostle the market around. When combined, they have enough boom to take the wind out of the sails of the recent market rally. As the stock market remains choppy, with mounting uncertainties to be had, we continue to follow our thematic strategy, adding positions prudently only when the time is right.

In this week’s edition of Tematica Investing:

  • We are issuing a Buy on Foods with Integrity play Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), taking the shares off the Contender list and placing them on the Tematica Select List with a $550 price target and a $390 stop loss. Read More
  • We are doubling down on Disney (DIS) shares following a solid quarter earnings report that show’s the strength underlying this Content is King company. Our price target remains $125. Read More
  • Keeping tabs on Costco Wholesale (COST) shares, with an eye to add more near $140.Read More
  • Ask Tematica: This week’s question is about buybacks. Yes, they help improve EPS comparisons, but there is a deeper dark side to these programs that we as investors must we aware of. Read More

Click the link below to download the full report

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As earnings kick into 5th gear expected volatility has us on sidelines, for now

As earnings kick into 5th gear expected volatility has us on sidelines, for now

We are waist deep in March quarter earnings with more than 1,400 companies reporting this week — a 40% increase compared to last week. Mixed in that horde are 124 S&P 500 companies (including 2 DJIA components) reporting. By the end of the week that will mean 87% of the S&P 500 group of companies will have reported March quarter results. 

As we’ve shared with you thus far, overall earnings expectations for the S&P 500 group of companies has continued to trend lower since the end of 3Q 2015. The expected volatility has us on the sidelines from jumping on new positions . . . for now. But that doesn’t mean we’re not busy sharpening our pencils and getting ready for the right opportunity. 

In this week’s edition of Tematica Investing:

  • Ahead of its May 9 earnings report, we are adding online pet pharmacy Petmed Express (PETS) to the Tematica Contender List. 
  • Regal Entertainment (RGC) rides the strong movie box office to beat earnings expectations.
  • A Tematica Investing subscriber question opens the door for Amazon (AMZN) shares.
  • We’ve got the latest thematic supporting data points that ripped from the headlines around us.
  • What did we enjoy this week? The Big Green Egg of course.

Click the link below to download the full report

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Wading deeper into earnings reports reveals growth expectations not living up to expectations

Wading deeper into earnings reports reveals growth expectations not living up to expectations

It’s earnings season, and with anywhere from a few hundred to more than a 1,000 companies reporting their results, this certainly makes for a volatile time with investors shooting first as results hit the tape and asking questions over the quality of those earnings later.

As we navigate the maze of earnings reports to be had in the coming days, we’ll continue to refine our thematic shopping list and look to pounce on opportunities that offer a compelling risk to reward trade off.

In this week’s edition of Tematica Investing:

  • Wading deeper into March quarter earnings finds growth expectations are not living up to expectations. As we’ve said before, it sometimes takes time for the market to react to the fundamentals, but the fundamentals eventually catch up with expectations.
  • While we expect no-action from the Fed’s FOMC meeting later today, expect Wall Street to parse the commentary on the economy and inflation to determine the Fed’s next course of action.
  • Earnings reports for companies on the Tematica Select List are starting to trickle in, and we see no reason to alter our position in AT&T (T) or American Capital Agency (AGNC) shares at this time.
    Checking in on Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) shares, we find more patience is required before pulling the gun on this Food with Integrity contender.
  • We’ve got the latest thematic supporting data points that ripped from the headlines around us.
    Finally, we’re re-introducing an old feature called “What We’re Enjoying” and this week it’s the new Echo Dot from Amazon.

Click the link below to download the full report

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Content continues to be king as we add another position to Tematica Select List

Content continues to be king as we add another position to Tematica Select List

While Sumner Redstone claims to have coined the phrase, it was Bill Gates who over two decades ago brought “Content is King” into the common vernacular when he wrote on the Microsoft website:

Content is where I expect much of the real money will be made on the Internet, just as it was in broadcasting . . . When it comes to an interactive network such as the Internet, the definition of “content” becomes very wide. For example, computer software is a form of content-an extremely important one, and the one that for Microsoft will remain by far the most important. But the broad opportunities for most companies involve supplying information or entertainment. No company is too small to participate.

We are seeing a new era of content given the entrance of companies like Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN) and Hulu as well as the growing influence of gaming, which has already spawned several cross platform properties. New technologies bring challenges, but at the end of the day no matter where consumers are with whatever device they have in their hands, content is what they will be consuming in one form or another.

It’s at this inflection point where we focus our investment strategy on one of the oldest content producers in the business, the Walt Disney Company (DIS).

In this week’s edition of Tematica Investing:

  • March Housing Starts disappointed, but given its multiplier effect a slower than expected spring housing season probably means a lackluster economy in the June quarter
  • We are adding Content is King company Disney (DIS) to the Tematica Select List with a price target of $125. We would be comfortable adding to the position up to the $106 level, and we are also instating a protective stop loss at $87. As you’ll read in our detailed comments, we are very upbeat about this new recommendation. Investors desiring an alternative strategy to invest in DIS shares could consider Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) which counts Disney as its third largest position at 6.7% behind Amazon.com (AMZN,10.4%) and Home Depot (HD,7.4%).
  • The best domestic movie box office in years means we remain upbeat on our position in Regal Entertainment Group (RGC) shares.
  • Kudos to us for not recently adding Nike (NKE) shares to the Tematica Select List, but we continue to watch the shares.

Click the link below to download the full report

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See, fundamentals do matter

See, fundamentals do matter

Welcome to this week’s edition of Tematica Investing. As you recall, this is the publication that replaces my old Growth & Dividend Report newsletter. Each week in Tematica Investing we’re going to provide you with investment ideas and strategies based upon our proprietary thematic investing framework, and takes a long-view approach to investing based upon documented trends that are uncovered while analyzing the intersection of economic, demographic, psychographic, regulatory and technological factors.

Now, in this week’s edition:

  • There are no new additions to the Tematica Select List today, however, we continue to examine new opportunities for it and the Tematica Contender List . . .read more.
  • As we expected, volatility is back on Wall Street as the herd once again begins to focus on fundamentals.
  • Looking at what’s up with the Tematica Select List as Physicians Realty Trust (DOC) makes a big transaction
  • We’re not taking it easy, we’re adding a new theme to the Tematica stable – The Fountain of Youth.
  • All that and more thematic confirmation ripped from the headlines

Click the link below to download the full report

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Nike: Just Do It? Maybe not quite yet

Nike: Just Do It? Maybe not quite yet

Here we are again, another update to Tematica Investing, your weekly service that replaces the Growth & Dividend Report.

In this week’s edition, we tackle:

  • Expectations for GDP in the current quarter fell even further this week.
  • As expected Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen pushes out potential rate hike timing
  • Dividend stocks come back into vogue as Yellen’s comments reverse hawkish comments last week and that’s good news for several of our holdings.
    Examining Nike ([stock_quote symbol=”NKE”]) and Under Armour ([stock_quote symbol=”UA”]) shares, but only one gets on the Tematica Contender List
  • More thematic confirmation ripped from the headlines…
  • Other securities mentioned in this report include: Alibaba (BABA), Apple (AAPL), AT&T (T) Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), Facebook (FB), Finish Line (FINL), Foot Locker (FL), General Mills (GIS), Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF), ParkerVision (PRKR), Physicians Realty Trust (DOC), Qualcomm (QCOM), Regal Entertainment Group (RGC), Shoe Carnival (SCVL) and Target (TGT).

Click the link below to download the full report

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