Menu
Using Market Flip Flops to Scale Several Positions and Add a New One As Well

Using Market Flip Flops to Scale Several Positions and Add a New One As Well

A hearty welcome back!

The stock market is moving a little faster and more volatile over the last few days, far different than what we saw through most of the summer. Inside this issue we recap the drivers for the flip-flopping — it’s a technical term, trust us 😉 — of the market and what’s  likely to be on investor radars next.

While some see pain as the market has fallen 2.5 to 2.7 percent depending on the index one is looking at, we see better prices for recently added positions like Sherwin Williams (SHW) and United Natural Foods (UNFI)even though their thematic tailwinds continue to blow. We’re doubling down on these two names and another — details inside.

We’re issuing a Buy rating on speciality contractor Dycom Industries (DY)and placing it on the Tematica Select List with a $115 price target, which offers more than 35% upside from last night’s closing price. While you may read speciality contractor and have a preconceived thought or two, Dycom is a crucial part in working with AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ) and Comcast (CMCSA)in expanding their existing networks and deploying the next and future generations. That makes Dycom a Connected Society contractor in our eyes. More details inside.

Any normal issue would not be complete without some updates on existing Tematica Select List positions. Because we’ve been away, we’ve got more than a few and that’s pushing this issue to the max (or at least 18 pages). All the latest and greatest, is just a click away.

You can click below to download the full report.

downalod-pdf

As food prices drop we make a move on a Foods with Integrity thematic opportunity

As food prices drop we make a move on a Foods with Integrity thematic opportunity

In this week’s edition of Tematica Investing:

  • Download Tematica InvestingWe are issuing a Buy on shares of United Natural Foods (UNFI) as part of our Food with Integrity investing theme. Our price target is $65, which offers more than 35 percent upside. We intend to build this position size over time and as such we are holding off issuing a stop loss recommendation at this time.  Read full report >>
  • We’ve got several Tematica Select List updates to share, including
    • AT&T (T)
    • CalAmp Corp. (CAMP)
    • Nike (NKE)
    • Under Armour (UA)
    • And several others. Read More . . .
  • Heads up! Just as you’ll be coasting into the last days of summer, after adding 5 new positions in as many weeks we too will be taking some time off to recharge our batteries before the final push for 2016 begins. So, there will not be an issue on Wednesday, September 7. Your next issue of Tematica Investing will be on September 14. 

 

You can click below to download the full report.

 

downalod-pdf

Housing and remodeling data rebounds, so we make another Rise-Fall of Middle Class move

Housing and remodeling data rebounds, so we make another Rise-Fall of Middle Class move

  • While the market waits for Yellen and Draghi to speak at the Kansas City Fed’s 40th Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming later this week, we continue to low expectations for anything new being said at the event. Read More >>
  • A pick up in New Home Sales bodes well for the Tematica Select List position in Sherwin Williams (SHW). We continue to rate SHW shares a Buy, and our price target remains $350. Read More >>
  • We are issuing a Buy on shares of Whirlpool Corp. (WHR) as part of our Rise & Fall of the Middle Class investing theme with a $232 price target. Much like Sherwin Williams, Whirlpool stands to benefit from robust repair & remodel spending over the next few years. Read More >>
  • Updates Updates Updates on Amazon (AMZN), CalAmp (CAMP), Under Armor (UA) and Nike (NKE) shares. Read More >>
You can click below to download the full report.

 

downalod-pdf

Getting this nursing stock off the bench and into the game

Getting this nursing stock off the bench and into the game

Continually throughout the past several weeks, we’ve shared our concern about the outlook for second half earnings for the S&P 500 group of companies relative to expectations — probably more than you’ve wanted to hear!

We continue to see those forecasts as overly robust, particularly with the stock market seemingly hitting new record highs every other day. Our view has been that there is more downside risk to be had as earnings expectations for the back half of 2016 get resized and reset.

Of course, as those expectations are reset, it can mean opportunity — opportunity for taking positions in companies we see as well-positioned from a thematic perspective, but at better prices than just a few weeks ago. We saw that last week with CalAmp Corp (CAMP), and we see it again this week with (AHS) AMN Healthcare Services.

 

In this week’s Tematica Investing:

  • We are taking advantage of a 23 percent drop in (AHS) AMN Healthcare Services shares to take them off the bench get them in the game — moving them from the Tematica Contender list to the Tematica Select List. Read More >>
  • With Back-to-School season more than in full swing, we dive into the intricacies of teen shopping habits and how they impact various positions across several of our themes, including Amazon (AMZN), Nike (NKE), Under Armour (UA) and what are probably the obvious themes and the not-so-obvious as well.  Read More >>

 

You can click below to download the full report.

downalod-pdf

It’s 11am, do you know where your car is? If not the stock we’re adding this week probably does

It’s 11am, do you know where your car is? If not the stock we’re adding this week probably does

Last week, as the latest issue of Tematica Investing was being delivered to you, I was literally being wheeled into the operating room for knee surgery. It was nothing too major, just the repair of a small meniscus tear I suffered on the basketball court. Fortunately for you (and for the performance of the Tematica Select List) the issue was completed early that morning — well in advance of that surgery — as I was pretty loopy afterwards!

A week later, things are feeling pretty good, but I am looking forward to getting the stitches out so I can get back in the pool and get some relief from the extra humid conditions here in DC this week!

 

In this week’s Tematica Investing:

 

  • We’re placing shares of CalAmp Corp. (CAMP) on the Tematica Select List as part of our Connected Society investing theme with a Buy rating and a $21 price target. We would be comfortable adding the shares up to $17.50, at which point we see upside of 20% vs. the current 35% upside to be had at the last night’s closing share price. Read More >>
  • Updates on Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Physicians Realty Trust (DOC), Nike (NKE) and Under Armour (UA). Read More >>
  • We also dig into where we are with our position in The Walt Disney Co. (DIS) after their earnings announcement last night. Hint, we need to have the same patience as a the line at Space Mountain. Read More >>
  • Check your accounts! Dividend payments have been made over the last few days from Starbucks (SBUX) an PetMeds Express (PETS). Read More >>

You can click below to download the full report.
downalod-pdf

Adding a splash of color to Rise & Fall of Middle Class

Adding a splash of color to Rise & Fall of Middle Class

Welcome to another weekly issue of the Weekly Tematica Investing. It’s been a wild week of market moves, earnings reports and economic data all at once.

In addition to my regular visits with the Charles Payne on his Making Money with Charles Payne show on Fox Business, I had an opportunity to sit down with the folks at Boom-Bust on RT (the new home of The Larry King Show) to dig deep into our thematic-driven approach and discuss why most investors are investing wrong. That of course is NOT the case with us!

You can click on the image below to watch the whole interview.

In this week’s Tematica Investing:

  • Closing the books on July, the Tematica Select List had a number of positions that handily outperformed the S&P 500, which rose 3.6% for the month. Read More >>
  • We are issuing a Buy rating paint and coatings company Sherwin Williams (SHW) with a $350 price target as we add a splash of color to our Rise & Fall of the Middle Class investing theme. This is a new position and we are holding off with a protective stop loss for now. Read More >>
  • Updates, Updates, Updates – Recapping earnings from Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), PetMeds Express (PETS) and Under Armour (UA). Read More >>
  • Housekeeping! – Here’s what we’re watching when Physicians Realty Trust (DOC) and Walt Disney (DIS) report quarterly earnings. Read More >>

You can click below to download the full report.
downalod-pdf

☀ During this summer heatwave, what better move to make than this?

☀ During this summer heatwave, what better move to make than this?

Dog in front of fanHere at Tematica Research, just outside of Washington, DC, we are “enjoying” a good old fashion summer heatwave. The hottest summer in four years, yesterday marked the 6th straight day of highs at or above 90 degrees.

Now for those in the Midwest and Southwest, you’re probably thinking, that’s nothing!

The magic we have here in DC to throw into the mix of steamy temperatures is the fact that the city is built on what was once swamp land, and with that comes humidity — lots of it! So temps in the 90’s can easily climb up into the 105 degree heat index range, and with that comes that little bead of sweat that starts on the back of your neck, rolls down between your shoulder blades, further down to your lower back and then . . . well, you know where that story is going.

All of this reminds us of what put athletic apparel manufacturer Under Armour (UA) on the map — moisture-wicking synthetic fabric. The company that started in the basement of CEO Kevin Plank’s grandmother in 1996, has grown into a nearly $4 billion company that specializes in making sure all that sweat we humans produce is evaporated away rather than ending up where the sun don’t shine.

The heatwave across much of the country allows for this cheeky opening narrative to this story. The real reason we’re talking about Under Armour now is, given the pull-back in shares after the company’s 2nd quarter earnings announcement, we’re using the opportunity to make a move and add them to the Tematica Select List.

In this week’s Tematica Investing:

  • We are adding Under Armour (UA) shares to the Tematica Select List as part of our Rise & Fall investing theme, with a $55 price target. There is no recommended protective stop loss at this time.
  • Given the robust movie slate for 2H 2016, we are keeping Content is King Regal Entertainment (RGC) shares on the Tematica Select List, despite a modest $0.01 per share earnings miss for the June quarter.
  • We have earnings from Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) later this week, and we preview what’s expected and what we’ll be looking for in those reports.
  • Starbucks is added to Goldman’s Conviction List, more confirmation for our position in the coffee giant.
  • AT&T (T) loses the Yahoo! (YHOO) bid to Verizon (VZ), and we are rather happy with that.

You can click below to download the full report.

downalod-pdf

 

Remaining loyal to our disciplined and thematic approach

Remaining loyal to our disciplined and thematic approach

The market move has turned more bearish of late, and we are not surprised Wall Street has adopted the more cautious stance we’ve had these last several weeks. A headline freak out on the April CPI report shows us just how nervous the stock market is these days. We’ll continue to be disciplined when contemplating adding each new position to the Tematica Select List.

In this week’s edition of Tematica Investing:

  • Just doing it with Nike shares. We are issuing a BUY on Nike (NKE) shares with a price target of $66. Because this is an initial recommendation we are holding off with a commensurate stop loss, as we intend to build this position size over time. We would be buyers of Nike up to $59. Read More >>
  • Remaining patient with Costco Wholesale (COST) shares
  • Adding share of EPR Properties (EPR), a Content is King company to the Tematica Contender List. Read More >>
  • Quick Updates on AT&T (T), PetMeds Express (PETS), Regal Entertainment Group (RGC) and Disney (DIS). Read More >>
  • This week’s Ask Tematica focuses on choosing between two different share classes.
  • As promised Thematic Signals returns this week, and there is no shortage of confirming data points for our thematic investing themes. Read More >>

Click the link below to download the full report

click to download