Closing out profits on a CMG call and issuing a “Buy” rating on 2 AAPL calls
Before we get started with the usual commentary, I will offer some quick housekeeping items. First, we were stopped out of our Pilgrim’s Pride ([stock_quote symbol=”PPC”]) March $24 calls last week amid the market’s whipsawing. Candidly, it frustrates me to no end when we are stopped out on a stock trading blip.
That’s the downside of using stop losses.
Whipsawing doesn’t happen all that often, but when it does I am sure it frustrates you as much as it does me. The bite of that trade is softened by the sharp move higher in our Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) June $500 calls (CMG160617C00500000) that finished Friday up 59% — pretty good for just a few days. With market futures up sharply this morning, let’s use that strength to take some CMG chips off of the table by selling half the position. With a few months to go until the CMG calls expire, let’s keep some skin in the game to capture additional upside. As I commented last week, I’m already seeing longer lines at a number of Chipotle locations and expect more people to queue up in the coming weeks and months as the worst is behind the company.
Okay, now let’s get to the regular commentary… and two new option recommendations.
What started off as another choppy ride in the markets last week turned into another downdraft following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s clear-as-mud testimony before the House Finance Committee midweek. Then on Friday, amid a flurry of upsized stock repurchase plans, insider buying disclosures and comments from the energy minister of OPEC member United Arab Emirates that fueled speculation on production cuts, we saw a sharp market rally. That combination of events and oil speculation that drove the market higher on Friday likely resulted in a hefty amount of short covering along the way. Of course, despite Friday’s 2% rally in the S&P 500, that index and other major market indices once again closed the week in the red.
While trading on Friday likely left investors feeling a little better, the reality is there are still a number of underlying concerns that will pressure the market in the week’s ahead. The bottom line on this morning’s OPEC and non-OPEC agreement is oil production will continue at record levels. I continue to see this as a strategic move targeting U.S. oil. We’re already starting to see bankruptcies and similar actions unfolding given the substantially higher cost structure. Other shoes yet to drop include what’s going on with the European banks and the latest corporate earnings. Also, in the coming two weeks we’ll get more economic data that will give us a clearer picture of how the current quarter is going.
Last week, Deutsche Bank and others cut gross domestic product (GDP) growth expectations for the first half of 2016, and, subsequently, their full-year expectations as well. We also continue to see overall earnings expectations for the S&P 500 ratcheting lower. With 25% or so of the S&P 500 group of companies still to report their December/January-quarter results, the probability is high we will see more to the downside.
One company that has been battered over the last few months is smartphone vendor Apple ([stock_quote symbol=”AAPL”]), down almost 20% over the last six months. For those of us who have studied Apple shares, we know the stock tends to coincide with new product introductions. After a quiet start to 2016, we are now hearing that Apple will unveil several products in mid-March, including a new iPhone form factor. Typically, the buzz ahead of these introductions tends to result in “buy the rumor, sell the news” action for Apple and with such low expectations, that activity should propel Apple shares higher over the next few weeks. Therefore, let’s add a staggered play on Apple by buying both the AAPL March $100 calls (AAPL160318C00100000) that last traded at $1.11 and the AAPL March $105 calls (AAPL160318C00105000) that last traded at $0.37. Both positions expire March 18. I’ll look to use any weakness to scale into these positions. But for now, we will hold off adding a protective stop loss lest we get whipsawed as we did with our recent PPC calls.
We’ve had a busy week complete with housing, manufacturing and inflation data, as well as the latest Federal Open Market Committee minutes. I’ll be drilling down on it all for you. Enjoy your week, and I’ll see you back here next week.